The Brazilian cement market continued to grow steadily in November 2025, with the national cement sales volume increasing by 4.1% year-on-year to 5.541 million tons, a significant increase from 5.325 million tons in the same period last year. This performance is mainly due to the continued hot employment market and the steady growth of residents'income, and the improvement of consumer confidence, which provides a strong support for cement demand.
However, the macro environment is not entirely optimistic. Despite the strong performance of the labor market, GDP growth has shown signs of slowing down throughout the year, while the credit and consumption environment remains challenging. Inflation forecasts show that inflation will be above target in 2025-2026, which means that interest rates are likely to remain high for a long time. Retail sales of building materials have felt the pressure, with retail sales of building materials falling by 2% in November compared with the same period last year, and the industry's annual growth forecast for 2025 has been sharply reduced from 1.8% to 0.5%. The
real estate market presents a complex picture. Construction of new homes rose 1.6% in the third quarter from a year earlier, but floor space sales fell 6.5% in the same period, leading to an increase in inventory overhang. Real estate financing through the Brazilian Savings Bank System (SBPE) has shrunk significantly, with the cumulative data as of October showing a sharp drop of 36.12% in the number of units financing new projects compared with the same period last year, directly reflecting the impact of rising interest rates. However, the government-led "My Home, My Life" (MCMV) housing program has become a key force in stabilizing the market. In the first 10 months of this year, housing starts under the plan rose 7.9% from a year earlier, and sales jumped 15.5%. This is significant for the cement industry — a 45-square-metre home consumes four to six tonnes of cement, depending on how it is built. The industry expects a significant boost to cement consumption to achieve the target of 2 million housing units between 2023 and 2026.
In terms of regional performance, sales in the southeast, the largest cement market in Brazil, increased by 5.8% year-on-year to 2.477 million tons in November, while sales in the northeast, the second largest market, increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 1.276 million tons. In contrast, the southern market fell 0.8% to 924000 tons, the Midwest grew fatigue, only 0.2% to 584000 tons, while the northern region maintained a steady growth of 4.9% to 280000 tons. The export market has become a bright spot, with cement exports surging 50% year-on-year to 6000 tons in November. According to
the cumulative data, the total domestic cement sales in Brazil from January to November 2025 reached 62.11 million tons, an increase of 3.6% over the same period last year. Among them, the accumulated sales volume in the southeast was 28.341 million tons, up 2.5% year-on-year; that in the northeast was up 7.1% to 13.299 million tons; that in the south was up 3% to 10.329 million tons; that in the Midwest was up 2.4% to 7.165 million tons; and that in the north was up 4.1% to 2.976 million tons. In the same period, the export volume was 60 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.6% over the same period. Paulo Camilo Pena, president of the
Brazilian Cement Industry Association (SNIC), said the industry was paying close attention to the dynamic balance between the rising labor market and credit constraints. Although the savings-dependent real estate market is under pressure from high interest rates, the strategic position of social security housing is becoming increasingly prominent. He believes that the continued promotion of the "My Home, My Life" program, the rapid expansion of infrastructure investment, especially roads and urban concrete pavement, and the industry's renewed commitment to the climate agenda will be the key factors determining whether demand can be sustained next year.
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