Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data for August 2026. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In August, the scale of social financing increased by 1.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 908.3 billion yuan less than same period last year. The stock of social finance grew by 7.2% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. Government bond financing increased by 1.01 trillion yuan in August, an increase of 357.5 billion yuan less than same period last year. At the same time, RMB loans increased by 55.2 billion yuan, an increase of 570.1 billion yuan less than same period last year. From the perspective of credit, loans to residents decreased by 202.9 billion yuan, 233.2 billion yuan more than same period last year; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 260 billion yuan, 330 billion yuan less than same period last year. In August, the demand for real financing continued to be weak, the substitution of direct financing for credit continued, and the financing structure continued to diversify.
(2) Cement output: According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cement output from January to August 2026 was 988.91 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.0% and an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous value. In August, the national cement market as a whole continued the traditional pattern of weak and stable grinding bottom in the off-season. The demand side was suppressed by high temperature weather and capital constraints, and the price fell more or rose less, pushing up the differentiation, showing a bottom shock as a whole.
(3) Market outlook: In September, entering the "Golden Nine" traditional peak demand season, the national cement market is expected to show a pattern of weak recovery, strong differentiation and bottom ladder repair. Since September, many provinces have increased the intensity of peak staggering and kiln shutdown, supply contraction, and superimposed coal cost shocks, opening a window for cement enterprises to repair quotations. However, the terminal demand is only improved by the ring-to-ring boundary, although the price has a rising momentum, but the rebound is limited, the overall "peak season is not prosperous, bright rise and dark stability" probability is high.
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