Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data for February 2023. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In February 2022, the scale of social financing increased by 3.16 trillion yuan. Year-on-year increase of 1943 billion yuan, social finance stock growth rate of 9.9% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from January, February social finance data super market expectations, strong performance. Specifically, the increase of RMB credit is the main supporting force, while the increase of government bond financing and the decrease of off-balance-sheet bill financing are also the main factors driving up the social finance data. From the credit side, both the residential side and the enterprise side are relatively bright, but there is a certain differentiation between them. RMB loans increased by 1810 billion yuan, an increase of 580 billion yuan over the same period last year, the medium and long-term loans for capital expenditure of enterprises and institutions increased by 604.8 billion yuan over the same period last year, and the medium and long-term loans of residents increased by 132.2 billion yuan, which began to turn positive, but the performance was weaker than that of enterprises. Financial data in February as a whole were better than market expectations, positive signals from the credit side continued to be released, and optimistic expectations for economic recovery were strong, but the residential side was lower than normal seasonal performance, and confidence still needed to be enhanced.
(2) Cement output: The output of cement from January to February 2023 was 19855 10,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, and the decrease in the output of cement from January to February was better than expected. After entering February, the epidemic factors were lifted, the downstream construction sites accelerated the resumption of production after the spring, and the demand gradually improved. Specifically, despite the overall downturn in real estate investment, the margin has improved; in terms of infrastructure, many major projects continue to be built, which forms a certain support for cement demand. Overall, although the demand in January-February was less than same period, the cement production decreased slightly, but the positive factors increased, and the market accelerated towards normalization.
(3) Market outlook: In March, the cement market transited from the off-season to the peak season, and the cement output is expected to increase on a month-on-month basis. From the demand side, the spring of this year is earlier, and after the "two sessions", all parts of the country will go all out to carry out economic construction, and the market demand is expected to further recover; from the supply side, many places will end the off-peak kiln shutdown in the middle and late of the year, and the mill operation rate will increase. With the increase in both supply and demand, cement production is expected to continue to increase, with a slight increase over the same period.
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