Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data for March 2023. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In March 2022, the scale of social financing increased by 5.38 trillion yuan. Year-on-year growth of 723.5 billion yuan, social finance stock growth rate of 10.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from February, February social finance data exceeded market expectations, the performance is bright, social finance in the table is still the main support. From the credit side, both the residential side and the enterprise side have performed well, and the differentiation between them has converged. RMB loans increased by 3890 billion yuan, an increase of 760 billion yuan over the same period last year. Medium and long-term loans for capital expenditure of enterprises and institutions increased by 725.2 billion yuan over the same period last year, much higher than seasonal performance. Medium and long-term loans for residents increased by 261.3 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of more than February. Financial data in March continued to be better than market expectations, showing the characteristics of "rising total volume and excellent structure", reflecting the continuous repair of economic fundamentals.
(2) Cement output: The output of cement from January to March 2023 was 10,000 tons 40234, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, and the increase in the output of cement from January to March was better than expected. After entering March, the downstream demand continued to recover, the supply was enlarged after the end of peak staggering in many places, and the supply and demand were strengthened synchronously. Specifically, the real estate investment was still in the doldrums, and the decline in a single month expanded. In terms of infrastructure, many key projects were accelerated under the support of special debt funds, which helped to form more physical workload and formed a strong support for cement demand. Overall, although the demand for housing construction remained weak in March, the construction of infrastructure projects was accelerated, and the production of enterprises gradually returned to normal after the end of peak staggering, cement production increased significantly year on year.
(3) Market outlook: In April, the cement market will gradually switch to the peak season, and it is expected that the cement output will continue to increase on a month-on-month basis. From the demand side, the investment is expected to be marginally improved under the improvement of real estate sales, the investment in infrastructure construction, especially the road transport industry, will maintain a rebound momentum, and the market demand will continue to recover; from the supply side, the enterprises will resume normal production after the end of peak staggering, and the mill operation rate will continue to rise. Under the double increase of supply and demand, it is expected that cement production will continue to increase, and the base of the same period will be low, or will maintain a relatively high growth rate.
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