Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data for April 2023. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In April 2023, the scale of social financing increased by 1217.1 billion yuan. The growth rate of social finance stock was 10.0%, which was the same as last month. In April, the social finance data fell more than expected, which was not only related to the overdraft of social finance in March, but also to the weakening of market expectations. From the credit side, residents and enterprises are relatively weak, RMB loans increased by 718.8 billion yuan, an increase of 73.4 billion yuan, enterprises and institutions for capital expenditure of medium and long-term loans increased by 401.7 billion yuan, down from previous months, residents of medium and long-term loans decreased by 115.6 billion yuan, a new monthly low. April's financial data are lower than market expectations, reflecting the current lack of confidence in the main market, the endogenous momentum of economic recovery is still not strong, and follow-up policies still need to be increased and landed.
(2) Cement output: The cement output from January to April 2023 was 584.29 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The cement output in April was 193.92 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.8%. The demand in April was significantly weaker than market expectation. After entering April, the rainy weather is more, the release of new projects is reduced, the shortage of funds in some areas is still superimposed, and the downstream demand is relatively weak. In terms of infrastructure, affected by the rainy weather, the construction progress of major projects slowed down, the growth of road transportation and railway transportation slowed down, and the support of infrastructure to cement demand weakened. Generally speaking, the new construction of real estate has been a significant drag, the growth rate of infrastructure has fallen slightly, and the demand for cement has been weak in April.
(3) Market outlook: In May, the demand in the peak season is expected to basically fail, and the cement output is expected to decline. From the demand side, the weak state of real estate front-end investment is difficult to change in the short term, infrastructure investment may continue to slow down due to the impact of the rainy season, and the market demand continues to weaken; from the supply side, many provinces announced plans to shut down kilns in May, and the mill operation rate has declined. With the decrease of supply and demand, it is expected that the cement output will decrease slightly both on a month-on-month basis and on a year-on-year basis.
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