Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data in May 2023. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In May 2023, the scale of social financing increased by 1560 billion yuan. Year-on-year growth of 1281.5 billion yuan, social finance stock growth rate of 9.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, May social finance data overall weak, lower than seasonal performance, mainly affected by the decline in RMB loans and bond financing. From the credit side, residents and enterprises in the medium and long term growth, but at a low level, RMB loans increased by 1360 billion yuan, an increase of 530 billion yuan less than same period last year, enterprises and institutions for capital expenditure in the medium and long term loans increased by 214.7 billion yuan, a significant decrease over the previous month, residents in the medium and long term loans increased by 63.7 billion yuan, a slight increase. May financial data is lower than market expectations, on the one hand, due to the first quarter of credit into a stable period, on the other hand, market expectations are still cautious, looking forward to more easing policies.
(2) Cement output: The cement output from January to May 2023 was 771.41 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and the cement output in May was 196.38 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%. The weak demand in May was basically in line with market expectations. After entering May, the rainy weather in the south is frequent, the construction sites and mixing stations are underutilized, the shortage of funds in some areas and the decline of new projects are superimposed, and the downstream demand continues to be weak. In terms of sub-items, under the guidance of the policy of "guaranteed delivery and guaranteed delivery", the investment in real estate development was insufficient, and the decline in investment continued to expand. In terms of infrastructure, although the pace of issuance of special bonds was still fast, the income from land transfer continued to be depressed, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down, while the growth rate of transportation and municipal services slowed down, and the support of infrastructure for cement demand weakened. Overall, the drag of real estate is obvious, the growth rate of infrastructure continues to slow down, and the overall demand for cement in May is weak.
(3) Market outlook: In June, the market officially entered the off-season, and the cement output is expected to decline year-on-year. From the perspective of terminal demand, real estate investment is still bottoming out and remains weak in the short term; infrastructure investment may continue to slow down due to the high base and the lack of stamina caused by the centralized issuance of special bonds in the early stage, and the market demand further weakens; from the perspective of supply, many provinces carry out peak staggering in summer under the high inventory, and the mill operation rate decreases. With the decrease of supply and demand, cement production is expected to decline year on year.
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