Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data for June 2026. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In June 2026, the scale of social financing increased by 3.36 trillion yuan. Year-on-year growth of 860.6 billion yuan, social finance stock growth of 7.4% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. In June, government bond financing increased by 768.3 billion yuan, an increase of 582.5 billion yuan less than same period last year, and the pace of issuance slowed down. At the same time, RMB loans under social finance increased by 1.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 595 billion yuan less than same period last year. From the perspective of credit, loans to residents increased by 264.6 billion yuan, an increase of 333 billion yuan less than same period last year; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 1.50 trillion yuan, an increase of 270 billion yuan less than same period last year, and bill financing increased by 525.3 billion yuan more than same period last year, which became the main support for credit. In June, the total amount of social finance continued to decline, the impulse characteristics of bill financing were obvious, and the substantial credit demand of residents and enterprises was still weak.
(2) Cement output: According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cement output from January to June 2026 was 736 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%, and the decrease was 0.6 percentage points narrower than previous value. In June, the national cement market as a whole showed a weak trend of weak demand, repeated push up and obvious regional differentiation. At the beginning of the month, many places tried to push up in the off-season, but due to the slow arrival of funds, the shutdown of the entrance examination for high school and college, the busy farming season and the rainy season, the actual implementation was generally less than expected.
(3) Market outlook: In July, the construction demand restrained in the early stage after the end of the Meiyu season in the south is expected to be released, but the high temperature and typhoon weather continue to interfere with the construction, combined with the downturn of real estate and insufficient new construction, the overall demand improvement is limited; The supply side staggered peak production continued, and the superimposed coal price was running at a high level, which formed a certain bottom for the price. Overall, the market is expected to improve marginally in July, but upward resistance remains.
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