Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data in October 2025. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In October 2025, the scale of social financing increased by 816.1 billion yuan. Year-on-year growth of 595.9 billion yuan, social finance stock growth of 8.5% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. Government bond financing increased by 485.2 billion yuan in October, an increase of 564.3 billion yuan less than same period last year. Recently, the scale of government bond issuance has continued to decline, and the gap with the same period last year has further widened, which has become an important reason for the year-on-year decrease in social finance. At the same time, RMB loans under social finance decreased by 15.4 billion yuan, an increase of 311.9 billion yuan less than same period last year. From the credit side, resident loans decreased by 360.4 billion yuan, an increase of 520.4 billion yuan less than same period last year; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 350 billion yuan, an increase of 220 billion yuan. In October, the demand for real credit was generally low, coupled with the continued drag of government bond financing, the growth rate of social finance slowed down further.
(2) Cement output: The cement output from January to October 2025 will be 10,000 tons 139985, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% and an increase of 1.5 percentage points as compared with the previous value. In October, the increment of downstream construction projects was obviously insufficient, the market demand was further shrinking, and the decline of cement production was significantly wider than same period last year.
(3) Market outlook: In November, the window of the traditional peak demand season has passed, and the northern market was affected by the low temperature, which slowed down the progress of the project and further suppressed the demand for cement. Demand in the southern market continues to be weak, and the situation of oversupply is hard to change. In terms of price, due to the shutdown of kilns and the concentrated rush of projects in the northern market, the market price may usher in a wave of price increases, while the southern market as a whole may mainly stabilize the existing price.
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