Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data in August 2025. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In August 2025, the scale of social financing increased by 2.57 trillion yuan. Year-on-year growth of 465.5 billion yuan, the stock of social finance growth rate of 8.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. Government bond financing increased by 1.37 trillion yuan in August, an increase of 250.5 billion yuan less than same period last year. Although the scale of government bond issuance remains at a high level, it is affected by the dislocation of issuance rhythm, which gradually drags down the growth of social finance. At the same time, RMB loans increased by 625.3 billion yuan, an increase of 415.8 billion yuan less than same period last year. From the perspective of credit, loans to residents increased by 30.3 billion yuan, 159.7 billion yuan less than same period last year; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 590 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan less than same period last year. Government bond financing support weakened in August, the endogenous growth momentum of the private sector needs to be further improved, and the growth rate of social finance peaked and fell.
(2) Cement output: The cement output from January to August 2025 was 1,104.57 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% and an increase of 0.3 percentage point as compared with the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement from January to August decreased by about 4.7% compared with the same period last year. In August, the downstream construction activity was still low, the market demand did not improve significantly, and the year-on-year decline in cement production continued to widen.
(3) Market outlook: In September, the high temperature and rainfall may continue, and the construction progress will continue to be limited. On the supply side, the differentiation of peak staggering and kiln shutdown has intensified, and the pressure in some regions has increased. Overall, if there is no substantial improvement in demand, cement prices may be stable and weak in September. If the demand for infrastructure picks up, some regional prices may rebound, and the overall reversal needs to wait for the peak season demand signal.
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