Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics released financial and economic data for November 2023. The observation and analysis of Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) Scale of social finance: In November 2023, the scale of social financing increased by 2.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 455.6 billion yuan over the same period last year, and the stock of social finance increased by 9.4% over the same period last year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous value. Local government special refinancing bonds continued to be issued in November, and government bond financing increased by 1.15 trillion yuan in that month, an increase of 499.2 billion yuan over the same period last year, which is still the core factor of the increase in social finance. From the credit side, RMB loans increased by 1.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.7 billion yuan less than same period last year. Among them, resident loans increased by 292.5 billion yuan, an increase of 29.8 billion yuan over the same period last year, and financing demand improved slightly, but the range was relatively limited. Loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 822.1 billion yuan, an increase of 61.6 billion yuan less than same period last year, with medium- and long-term loans as the main drag. In November, the performance of social finance was basically in line with market expectations, and the overall performance of credit was still weak.
(2) Cement output: The cement output from January to November 2023 was 186735 10,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, and the decrease was narrower than previous value. Among them, the monthly output in November was 189 million 790 thousand tons, an increase of 1.6% over the same period. In November, the domestic cold air activity increased, the temperature generally declined, the downstream construction activities weakened, and the demand for cement showed a downward trend. At the same time, many places began to implement the winter peak staggering shutdown, and the cement supply side also contracted. Generally speaking, affected by weather factors, the supply and demand of cement industry declined in November, and the overall shipment volume declined annually, still showing an increasing trend year-on-year.
(3) Market outlook: In December, the northern region entered the off-season of winter break, and some projects in the south still have the demand for rush work, but the scale is less than same period in previous years, and the demand for cement is expected to further weaken. On the supply side, affected by seasonal factors and inventory pressure, the scope of off-peak kiln shutdown in China was further expanded, the operation rate of cement kiln mill continued to decline, and the cement output in December is expected to continue to show a downward trend. In addition, cement production in December is expected to increase year-on-year due to a low base in the same period last year.
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