Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data for December 2022. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In December, the scale of social financing increased by 1305.8 billion yuan. Year-on-year growth of 1052.2 billion yuan, social finance stock growth of 9.6% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from November, December social finance data weaker than market expectations, but credit data improved significantly. Specifically, the less increase in government bond financing and the cooling down of corporate bond financing are the drag factors for the lower than expected social finance data, while RMB loans and non-standard financing are stronger than same period. From the credit side, the overall situation continues to improve, with the enterprise side increasing year-on-year for two consecutive months, the residential side decreasing, and the confidence of market participants gradually rising. RMB loans increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 270 billion yuan over the same period last year, and medium- and long-term loans for capital expenditure by enterprises and institutions increased by 601.7 billion yuan over the same period last year, reflecting a substantial restoration of business confidence under the expectation of a rebound in economic fundamentals. Although the December financial data as a whole is lower than market expectations, the positive signals on the credit side continue to be released, the optimistic expectations of economic recovery are strong, and the difference between "weak reality" and "strong expectations" is expected to continue to converge.
(2) Cement output: the cement output from January to December in 2022 is 211795 10,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, of which the cement output in December is 168.44 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.1%, and the cement output in December is lower than expected. It is the lowest production year since 2009. After entering December, the number of infected people in many parts of the country reached a peak, the construction site was greatly affected, and the demand was greatly weakened. Specifically, real estate investment continues to be weak, and infrastructure investment has slowed down under the influence of the epidemic, both of which have greatly suppressed the demand for cement. On the whole, the demand in December was weaker than expected, and many places were in the winter peak, so the cement production dropped sharply.
(3) Market outlook: In January, many places are in the state of winter break, the cement market has entered the seasonal off-season, and it is expected that the cement output will continue to decline. From the demand side, it is expected that the downstream demand will remain weak under the Spring Festival effect due to the early Chinese New Year, the early return of workers and the completion of construction in many places. From the supply side, it is expected that enterprises in many places will still stagger the peak in winter, and the mill operation rate is low. Under the weak supply and demand, it is expected that cement production is difficult to have an optimistic performance.
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