Cement Net Monthly Report: Investment and financing are both weak at the macro level, and the decline in cement production continues to widen (7.1-7.31)

Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data for July 2025. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:

(1) The scale of social financing: In July 2025, the scale of social financing increased by 1.13 trillion yuan. The stock of social finance increased by 9.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous value. Government bond financing increased by 1.25 trillion yuan in July, an increase of 560.1 billion yuan over the same period last year, and the scale of local bond issuance in that month was significantly higher than same period in previous years, supporting the growth of social finance. At the same time, RMB loans under social finance decreased by 429 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 348 billion 800 million yuan over the same period last year. From the perspective of credit, resident loans decreased by 489.3 billion yuan, 279.3 billion yuan more than same period last year; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 60 billion yuan, 70 billion yuan less than same period last year. In July, the high growth of government bonds led to a sustained increase in the growth rate of social finance, but the demand for credit in the real sector was weak, and the structural differentiation was more obvious.

(2) Cement output: The cement output from January to July 2025 was 958.01 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and an increase of 0.2 percentage point as compared with the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement from January to July decreased by about 4.3% compared with the same period last year. In July, the domestic off-season construction progress was slow, the market demand continued to be depressed, and the year-on-year decline in cement production expanded.

(3) Market outlook: In August, the high temperature rainy season ends, and the demand is expected to pick up. On the supply side, affected by the normalization of off-peak production, the release of production capacity is limited, but the inventory is still at a medium and high level. To sum up, the domestic cement market in August is expected to show a trend of "stable supply and increasing demand", and the overall price trend is expected to rebound slightly.

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