Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data in December 2025. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In December 2025, the scale of social financing increased by 2.21 trillion yuan. Year-on-year growth of 646.2 billion yuan, social finance stock growth of 8.3% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. In December, government bond financing increased by 683.3 billion yuan, an increase of 1.07 trillion yuan less than same period last year. As the progress of government bond issuance was basically completed, the new scale of government bonds was greatly reduced at the end of the year, and the support for the growth of social finance was further weakened. At the same time, RMB loans under the social finance caliber increased by 409 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 112 billion yuan less than same period last year. From the perspective of credit, loans to residents decreased by 91.6 billion yuan, an increase of 441.6 billion yuan less than same period last year; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 1.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 580 billion yuan. In December, the corporate sector performed well driven by policy, but the growth rate of social finance weakened again due to the continued weakness of credit in the residential sector and the contraction of government bond financing.
(2) Cement output: The cement output from January to December 2025 was 1,693.14 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, and the decrease was consistent with the previous value. In December, when the market entered the off-season at the end of the year, the construction in the north tended to stagnate, while the demand for rush work in the southern market was insufficient, and the cement output continued to decline considerably.
(3) Market outlook: In January, as the traditional off-season, the weak market demand is difficult to change, and the regional differentiation will be further intensified. During this period, some construction sites have rush demand, coupled with enterprises to stabilize the annual price system, the overall market will remain weak and stable, not excluding some regional prices with high inventory pressure. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the whole month will lack upward momentum, and the overall situation will be dominated by weak consolidation, which is ready for the spring market.
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