Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data in May 2025. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In May 2025, the scale of social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan. The stock of social finance increased by 8.7% year-on-year, which was consistent with April. Government bond financing increased by 1.46 trillion yuan in April, an increase of 231.9 billion yuan over the same period last year. Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds were issued centrally, and government bond financing continued to be the main factor supporting the growth of social finance. From the credit side, RMB loans increased by 620 billion yuan, an increase of 330 billion yuan less than same period last year. Among them, loans to residents increased by 54 billion yuan, 21.7 billion yuan less than same period last year; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 530 billion yuan, 210 billion yuan less than same period last year. In April, the growth rate of social finance maintained a high level, but the demand for real credit was still weak, and the structure needed to be further improved.
(2) Cement output: The cement output from January to May 2025 was 659.39 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.0% and an increase of 1.2 percentage points as compared with the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement from January to May decreased by about 4.1% compared with the same period last year. In May, the domestic rainwater increased, which had a negative impact on construction activities, the terminal purchasing volume declined, and the year-on-year decline in cement production continued to widen.
(3) Market outlook: In June, there will be more unfavorable factors such as high school entrance examination, high temperature in the rainy season, the construction site will slow down, and the demand for cement may further weaken. On the supply side, some northern markets still have peak-shifting plans, and the recovery of clinker production capacity is limited; the southern market plans to implement peak-shifting production to curb the risk of high inventory. To sum up, at present, the price of cement in many places has fallen to a low level. If the plan of off-peak kiln shutdown is implemented in place, cement enterprises may have the willingness to support the price. However, considering that June is in the traditional off-season and the demand is declining seasonally, it is difficult to implement it as a whole.
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