Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data for April 2026. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In April 2026, the scale of social financing increased by 0.62 trillion yuan. The stock of social finance increased by 7.8% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from March. Government bond financing increased by 0.90 trillion yuan in April, an increase of 68.8 billion yuan less than same period last year, and the pace of government bond issuance was relatively stable, but slightly less than same period last year due to the high base. At the same time, RMB loans under social finance decreased by 400.6 billion yuan, an increase of 489 billion yuan less than same period last year. From the perspective of credit, loans to residents decreased by 786.9 billion yuan, an increase of 265.3 billion yuan over the same period last year; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 390 billion yuan, an increase of 220 billion yuan less than same period last year. In April, the credit structure showed the characteristics of "strong bills and weak entities". Bill financing increased by 1242.9 billion yuan to a record high, which became the main force supporting the total amount of credit. However, the demand for real credit in both the residential and enterprise sectors was insufficient, and the growth of social financing continued to slow down.
(2) Cement output: According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cement output from January to April 2026 was 443.28 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.6% and an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the previous value. In April, the national cement market demand was flat, the demand in East China was extremely light due to rain weather and capital constraints, the outdoor construction in South China was hindered by heavy rainfall and strong convective weather, and the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand continued.
(3) Market outlook: In May, the national cement market demand entered the centralized implementation period, and the supply contraction is expected to increase; at the same time, the weather in various places is improved, and some infrastructure funds are in place, which may promote the demand to recover slightly. However, the inventory is on the high side compared with the same period last year, the new construction of real estate is difficult to improve in the short term, and the ceiling of total demand still exists.
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