Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data for March 2026. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In March 2026, the scale of social financing increased by 5.23 trillion yuan. Year-on-year growth of 670.1 billion yuan, social finance stock growth of 7.9% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. Government bond financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan in March, an increase of 324.4 billion yuan less than same period last year. Although the scale of government bond issuance is less than same period last year, it is still at a historical high level. At the same time, RMB loans increased by 3.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 670.8 billion yuan less than same period last year. From the perspective of credit, loans to residents increased by 490.9 billion yuan, 494.4 billion yuan less than same period last year; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 2.66 trillion yuan, 180 billion yuan less than same period last year. In March, with the support of a substantial increase in corporate bond financing, the increment of social finance remained at a certain scale, but the characteristics of weak credit demand and structural differentiation were still obvious.
(2) Cement output: According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cement output from January to March 2026 was 301.02 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, and the growth rate was 13.9 percentage points lower than previous value. In March, the recovery of downstream construction activities was slow, and the actual demand performance was still relatively low. On the supply side, the clinker kiln was shut down for a long time, and the cement output was lower than same period last year.
(3) Market outlook: In April, the national cement market demand may continue to further recover, but the overall demand is still weak due to the shortage of funds and the downturn of real estate. Although some regions may continue to try to boost the market through "notification rise", due to insufficient demand follow-up, the price will probably face downward pressure after the false rise.
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