Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data for February 2026. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In February 2026, the scale of social financing increased by 2.39 trillion yuan. The stock of social finance increased by 8.2% year-on-year, which was consistent with the previous value. Government bond financing increased by 1.4 trillion yuan in February, an increase of 292.5 billion yuan less than same period last year. Although the scale of government bond issuance is less than same period last year, it is still at a historical high level. At the same time, RMB loans increased by 845.8 billion yuan, an increase of 193 billion yuan over the same period last year. From the perspective of credit, loans to residents decreased by 650.7 billion yuan, an increase of 261.6 billion yuan over the same period last year; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 450 billion yuan over the same period last year. In February, supported by the increase in corporate loans and the issuance of government bonds, the growth rate of social finance remained stable, but the characteristics of credit structure differentiation were still obvious.
Cement output: According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cement output from January to February 2026 was 17827 10,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and the growth rate was 13.7 percentage points higher than that at the end of 2025. In February, during the Spring Festival holiday, the market was basically in a state of off-season recuperation, and demand remained at a low level during the year. On the supply side, cement production increased year on year due to the late Chinese New Year.
(3) Market outlook: In March, the national cement market is expected to show a pattern of "stability in the north and movement in the south, regional differentiation". The northern market continues the traditional off-season characteristics, and the southern market will take the lead in starting the demand recovery. At the same time, the nationwide peak-staggering production policy continues to restrict the release of production, coal and other costs run smoothly, and enterprises have a strong willingness to stabilize prices. Overall, the main theme of the market is the balance adjustment in the slow recovery of supply and demand, and the possibility of large price fluctuations is low, but the regional differentiation will be further intensified.
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