Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data in May 2026. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In May 2026, the scale of social financing increased by 2.03 trillion yuan. The stock of social finance increased by 7.7% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. In May, government bond financing increased by 1.22 trillion yuan, 234.9 billion yuan less than same period last year, which weakened the support for social finance due to the high base of the same period last year. At the same time, RMB loans increased by 496.5 billion yuan, an increase of 95.8 billion yuan less than same period last year. From the perspective of credit, loans to residents decreased by 141.2 billion yuan, an increase of 195.2 billion yuan over the same period last year, continuing the trend of deleveraging; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 640 billion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan over the same period last year, but mainly relying on the impulse support of bill financing, long-term loans to enterprises rarely turned negative, and the demand for real credit is still weak. In May, the total amount of social finance rebounded seasonally, but the structural differentiation was obvious.
(2) Cement output: According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cement output from January to May 2026 was 590.91 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, and the decrease was consistent with the previous value. In that month, the cement market was weak as a whole, showing a game pattern of strong cost push and weak demand drag, with significant regional differentiation. East China and Central South China pushed up, but the implementation range was limited, and the demand was released after the weather improved in Sichuan and Chongqing in Southwest China.
(3) Market outlook : In June, the national cement market will still be under weak pressure, and the demand side will be suppressed by the traditional off-season such as plum rain, high temperature and busy farming season, so it is difficult to have significant volume; the cost side coal price will fluctuate at a high level, and enterprises have strong willingness to push up, but the terminal acceptance is limited, so it is difficult to implement the price increase. The northern market may continue to weaken steadily, while the southern market still has downside risks under the influence of the rainy season. Overall, the market lacks substantial momentum for recovery, and demand recovery still needs to wait.
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