[宏观月评] 2019年1-2月:房地产销售跳水,水泥需求还稳吗?

2019-03-15 17:38:12

1-2月份,全国固定资产投资4.48万亿元,同比增长6.1%,自去年9月份起,固投金额增速持续回升。短板领域投资在政策的“呵护”下渐有起色。1-2月份,基础设施投资同比增长4.3%……

近日,国家统计局公布了2019年1-2月宏观数据。水泥大数据研究院观察分析如下:

(1)水泥供给:前两个月全国水泥产量为2.12亿吨,比去年同期减少了约1000万吨。

(2)水泥需求:推测1-2月地产端需求下降,基建较稳,导致总需求小幅下滑。

(3)进出口:1-2月我国水泥对外贸易量同比有所萎缩,进出口量占国内总产量比例仍然很小,影响不大。

(4)后市展望:从2019年开年数据来看,水泥供需、对外贸易量均下滑。今年宏观经济发展对于水泥行业的影响整体偏稳,基建端水泥需求稳定,地产端预期将在全年前高后低。

基建稳步回升,房地产多项指标跳水

1-2月份,全国固定资产投资4.48万亿元,同比增长6.1%,自去年9月份起,固投金额增速持续回升。短板领域投资在政策的“呵护”下渐有起色。1-2月份,基础设施投资同比增长4.3%,在交通投资的发力下增速稳步回升。其中,铁路运输业投资增长22.5%,去年全年为下降5.1%;道路运输业投资增长13%,增速比去年全年提高4.8个百分点。

去年12月份发改委密集批复一批基础设施建设项目。考虑到基建项目落地周期一般在1年左右,今年在建的基建项目,尤其是交通领域投资将会是稳定水泥需求的重要支撑。政府工作报告中表示要实行积极财政政策,今年我国赤字率预期为2.8%,比去年预算高0.2个百分点,比去年略宽松一点。2月末社会融资规模增速为10.1%,M2增速为8.0%央行行长表示今年的M2和社会融资规模的增速大体上将会和名义GDP的增速保持一致,也即货币政策仍然不宽松。因此可以判断基建会稳,但大幅增长的可能性很小。这与交通部门对于2019年的投资计划和2018年基本持平也是相吻合的。

图1:2018-2019.02全国基建投资额累计同比增长率

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥大数据研究院

除投资外,房地产的各项指标都发出了预警信号。2019年1-2月份,全国房地产开发投资增长11.6%,增速比2018年全年提高2.1个百分点;其中中西部增长提速。投资增速继续回升,但其他各项指标显著恶化。1-2月份,房地产开发企业房屋新开工面积增长6.0%,增速大幅回落11.2个百分点,房屋竣工面积下降11.9%,降幅扩大,房屋施工面积同比增长6.8%,增速比2018年全年提高1.6个百分点。

图2:2018-2019.02全国房地产开发投资额情况(月)

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥大数据研究院

前瞻性指标来看,1-2月份房地产开发企业土地购置面积同比大幅下滑34.1%,2018年全年为增长14.2%;土地成交价款下降13.1%,2018年全年为增长18.0%。1-2月份,商品房销售面积14102万平方米,同比下降3.6%,2018年全年为增长1.3%。土地购置费最新数据尚未公布,2018年同比增长57%,由于土地购置费一般是在拿地后一年内分期缴纳的,因而具有一定的滞后性。

图3:2018-2019.02全国房地产土地购置与销售情况

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥大数据研究院

今年1-2月房地产投资增速继续走高,而新开工、竣工、土地购置、销售等指标均已跳水。根据目前的信息来看,房地产投资与其他指标发生背离的原因主要有三点:1)房地产经历了去年的“加快周转”后,施工重点从高速新开工转向建设周期,建安方面的支出增加;2)拆解房地产投资明细,其中土地购置费占比约1/3,因此会增强投资额相比其他指标的滞后性;3)由于2018年房地产投资统计口径的变化,导致当年房地产投资低于原先口径的统计值,由于基数的降低因此今年的增速显示在数据上会比去年有所提高。

作为房地产行业前瞻性指标的土地购置面积、土地成交款和销售面积均转负增长,企业拿地、建设投资的积极性将会受到打击。根据发改委数据2018年房地产拟建项目数量较上年增长32.8%,房地产项目落地周期一般为3个月左右,待拟开工项目逐渐落地,新开工可能会进一步下行。房地产投资有望保持稳定,并不会大幅下滑,一方面是在建项目有施工的需求,另外从2018年土地购置情况来看土地购置费在2019年将继续保持增长,支撑房地产投资的增长。新开工的逐渐下行和投资的维稳,或说施工需求增加两方面因素影响对冲,随着存量的消耗,地产端水泥需求可能会在全年呈现前高后低的局面。

 1-2月水泥产量同比减少1000多万吨

根据国家统计局数据,2019年1-2月份水泥产量为21181万吨,比2018年1-2月减少了1075.30万吨。根据市场反馈来看,前两个月的水泥供需应该主要集中在1月份的南方区域。北方天气寒冷,1月份起东北市场基本停止,华北地区和西北市场需求明显减弱,南方地区需求相对北方较好,春节前后也逐渐减少。2月上旬是农历春节,今年节后由于天气等原因需求恢复慢于往年。

图4:2017-2019.02全国水泥产量及同比增长情况

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥大数据研究院

 进出口贸易总量萎缩

水泥对外贸易方面,水泥进出口总量占国内总产量比例仍然很小,量有所萎缩。水泥熟料进出口总量从去年300多万吨下降至今年1-2月不足200万吨。分项来看今年前两个月水泥出口量下滑较多,熟料进口和出口量均有小幅萎缩。

从整体数据来看我国是水泥净出口、熟料净进口的状况。熟料净进口量122.88万吨,与去年基本持平。水泥净出口10.20万吨,比去年减少了113万吨。

图5:2018-2019年1-2月中国水泥熟料净进口量(万吨)

数据来源:海关总署,中国水泥网,水泥大数据研究院

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Correlation

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Under the current supply and demand situation of the industry, strict implementation of off-peak production is still the key to maintain the stable development of the industry. According to its introduction, the number of off-peak production days in Chongqing this year may reach nearly 200 days, about 20 days more than last year. However, from the implementation of this year, two key problems need to be solved to promote off-peak production. 1、 Some small enterprises are not enthusiastic about participating. According to its introduction, large enterprises and some small enterprises in the region can strictly implement the peak-staggering production plan, but some small-scale cement enterprises, especially single-line enterprises, have poor enthusiasm for the implementation of peak-staggering production, which makes it difficult to implement the regional peak-staggering production as a whole.

2024-10-15 14:42:58

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

As a "veteran" of the industry, Li Wenxiu has personally experienced the ups and downs of the cement industry for decades. Faced with the current difficulties, Li Wenxiu believes that solidifying the market and share is the key to stabilizing the development trend of the industry, steadily promoting capacity removal and realizing the "soft landing" of the industry under the background of a sharp decline in demand. "The more the economic downturn, the more stable employment, stable income, capacity is inevitable, but how to go to capacity is the way we can choose, the current solidification of the market, solidification of share, to maintain the basic efficiency of the industry is very critical.".

2024-09-18 11:20:28

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

The vicious competition of "involution" is a game without winners.

2024-08-08 10:38:47

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand and sales in southwest China are sluggish, cement prices in Sichuan and Chongqing continue to fall, and some regions have fallen back to the level before the price increase in June. Some markets in the surrounding Yunnan-Guizhou region are still pushing up in the week, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-08-02 17:25:15

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

From the perspective of various factors, the cement industry was flat in the first half of the year, and in the second half of the year, under the stimulation of the steady growth policy, the physical workload of the project landing was expected to increase.

2024-07-25 10:00:09

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

According to the research and statistics of the People's Bank of China, according to the issuance plans announced by various places, the issuance scale of new local bonds in the third quarter was as high as 1966.9 billion yuan, an increase of 605.3 billion yuan over the same period last year; plus the maturity scale of 1067.6 billion yuan of local bonds, it is expected that in the third quarter

2024-07-10 14:08:28

There is little hope that the demand for cement on the real estate side will recover, and infrastructure will remain the "biggest reliance" for cement demand for a long time to come. If the demand for cement at the infrastructure end can not play a supporting role, or even decline by a large margin, the cement supply side will drive the cement to rise.

2024-07-01 12:02:26

The contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, and the price prospect of natural sand is worrying.

2024-06-26 15:22:12

The serious decline in demand, coupled with the fierce market competition, the low opening and low going of cement prices, continued to bottom out, and the loss of the industry expanded. The loss of the industry in the first quarter exceeded that of 2016, and the pressure of enterprise operation was unprecedented.

2024-05-31 14:35:19

Taiwan's cement industry has experienced a complete life cycle from germination, growth, prosperity to recession. Study Taiwan cement industry from the development since demand drops period, have draw lessons from a meaning very much to market of current mainland cement.

2024-05-28 11:53:23

Affected by insufficient infrastructure support and the continuous downturn of real estate, the demand of cement industry continued to be weak throughout the year. In 2023, the national cement output was 2.023 billion tons, down 5% from the same period last year. Under the influence of the decline in demand, the contradiction of excess capacity was further intensified, the market competition was extremely fierce, the price of cement dropped significantly, the industry profit shrank sharply again, the annual profit dropped by more than 50%, the development of the cement industry entered an unprecedented difficult period, and many companies suffered heavy losses.

2024-05-23 14:01:48

How is the cement industry in Hubei? Faced with the current situation, what are the views of cement enterprises in the region?

2024-05-23 13:38:17

In the first quarter of 2024, the industry as a whole showed the operational characteristics of "shrinking demand, fierce competition, high inventory and low price".

2024-05-07 09:20:19

The economic slowdown is another challenge facing the U.S. cement market in 2024.

2024-04-28 17:17:33

In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for infrastructure fell short of expectations, housing projects continued to shrink, and the concrete industry continued to weaken. By the end of March, the National Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) closed at 122.38 points, down 1.8% from the beginning of the year. Compared with the same period in 2023, the concrete price index fell by 12.8%.

2024-04-22 10:18:23

Recently, a number of cement listed companies have been surveyed by institutions and expressed their views and judgments on the market trend this year.

2024-04-18 11:15:12

From January to March 2024, the cement output was 10,000 tons 33684, a decrease of 11.8% over the same period last year, an increase of 10.2 percentage points over the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement in January-March decreased by 16.3% year-on-year.

2024-04-16 15:55:59

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

2024-04-12 16:16:19

As the main body of the market, enterprises will give answers with their own practical actions.

2024-04-10 13:03:13

The general aggregate market is already fighting in the Red Sea, while the high-end fine aggregate market is still the blue sea market.

2024-04-03 14:16:17

In terms of thermal coal price, Chen Tianyu believes that: 1. Excess supply and demand is difficult to change, and the situation of periodic tightening will still occur; 2. Under the dual-track system, pay attention to the rhythm of non-electricity demand release; 3. The price of 5500 kcal coal around Bohai Sea will be 973 yuan/ton in 2023, and the price focus will continue to move down in 2024, fluctuating between 750-950 yuan/ton.

2024-04-02 11:28:11

On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly.

2024-03-29 18:00:30

On March 27, the "13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony" hosted by China Cement Network officially began to report.

2024-03-27 20:36:33

In January-February 2024, the output of cement was 10,000 tons 18280, a decrease of 1.6% over the same period last year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement in January-February decreased by 7.9% year-on-year.

2024-03-18 16:54:15

Cement demand in 2024 is expected to continue the trend of the previous two years and continue to decrease. The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. It is expected that the demand for infrastructure and rural market will remain stable. The key is whether the growth rate of real estate investment can stabilize and rebound, thus supporting the demand for cement.

2024-03-18 13:43:28

Zhang Liqun pointed out that facing the future, China's economy can not stay at this level for a long time, is in the start-up period of new development, the cement industry needs to be confident and fully prepared.

2024-03-14 14:10:57

In 2024, the contradiction between supply and demand in the cement industry is becoming more and more serious, and the battle of "grabbing share" among major cement enterprises is imminent, and the national situation is more complex and pessimistic.

2024-03-13 09:15:24

On March 28-29, China Cement Network will hold the "13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony" in Hangzhou. During the conference, awards will be given to the top 100 cement and supplier enterprises. At the same time, experts and scholars, China Railway and other construction units will be invited to discuss the new development trend of the cement industry in the future, and work together to create the future!

2024-02-27 09:41:58

In January 2024, the sales price of cement in Hunan Province fell by 1.4% on a month-on-month basis and 12% on a year-on-year basis, mainly due to overcapacity, declining demand and lower production costs. Cement market prices are expected to remain volatile and weak in February, but in the long run, the boost from infrastructure and real estate investment will support demand.

2024-02-19 10:09:06

The author believes that the expansion of the "concrete city" model also reflects the change of the unequal relationship between the North and the South in the world. In the past, multinational companies grabbed a lot of investment and trade gains, but under the new capitalism of "combination of government and business" in Africa, local political and business elites have risen and formed alliance networks, among which the best have even begun to launch reverse m ergers and reshape "North-South relations". With the retreat of neoliberal influence, a new governance model seems to be emerging in West Africa: the government centralizes the promotion of infrastructure projects, enterprises respond to the call to speed up the landing, and the people vote according to the results of their achievements.

2024-02-07 09:41:37

Although the company suffered losses in the context of the sharp decline in the operating performance of the whole industry, the operating cash flow in the first three quarters was basically flat compared with the previous year, maintaining financial stability and ensuring the potential for development.

2024-02-05 09:23:30

It is believed that with the sustained development of Xinjiang's fixed investment, the local cement demand is worth looking forward to.

2024-01-30 15:25:30

Ma Zhifeng said that the cement industry has been overcapacity for a long time, and off-peak production is the only feasible way for the cement industry to explore for many years. If the off-peak production policy can not be effectively implemented, many enterprises will not survive.

2024-01-25 10:37:28

In 2023, India's cement market demand and production continued to grow, the domestic urbanization process was further accelerated, and the investment in infrastructure remained unchanged.

2024-01-22 13:39:47

Talking about the situation of Henan cement market in 2024, Wang Aizhen said that due to the drag of real estate, the contradiction between supply and demand is likely to further intensify in the new year, and the price competition among enterprises may be unavoidable. If the industry can not reach a consensus on steady growth, the Henan cement market will remain difficult in the new year, and the loss may be more serious.

2024-01-16 20:10:05

Recently, the cement network APP video number carried out the online live broadcast of "Sharing Hui Building Materials Observation", and Li Kunming, an analyst of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, looked forward to the cement industry in 2024.

2024-01-12 12:10:02

The darkness before dawn is the darkest, and no one can give an accurate answer to whether the cement industry is now "dark" at night or "dark" at dawn.

2024-01-05 11:40:02

With the decline of demand, the increase of new production capacity and the overall decline of the average price of cement, where is the bright future of the cement industry?

2024-01-02 15:58:24

2023年,受房地产持续调整等影响,水泥行业发展景气度继续下降。一季度下游复工情况尚佳,整体需求好于同期;二、三季度“旺季不旺、淡季更淡”,需求减弱明显,加之市场竞争激烈,水泥价格持续走低;四季度需求弱势恢复,水泥价格小幅上涨。总体来看,2023年水泥产量创下近13年新低,尽管煤价重心有所下移,但水泥价格降幅较深,行业利润大幅萎缩。展望2024年,我们认为地产对水泥需求拖累减弱,水泥产量或将小幅下降,产能过剩压力下水泥价格中枢下移,行业效益难言乐观。

2023-12-22 17:20:42

2023年,下游终端市场仍然面临资金偏紧的局面,多数区域施工增量不及预期,加之上游企业竞争加剧,成本端支撑乏力,混凝土行业易跌难涨,效益进一步走弱……

2023-12-21 09:21:01

2023年1-11月水泥产量为186735万吨,同比减少0.9%,降幅较前值收窄。其中,11月单月产量18979万吨,同比增加1.6%……

2023-12-15 15:14:37

中国建筑材料联合会阎晓峰会长明确提出,水泥行业提前实现碳达峰已成为现实,建材行业全面实现碳达峰,迈向碳中和的时代正在到来。

2023-12-14 09:21:30

当前水泥行业利润下滑严重、市场态势低迷的情形,很大程度上是诸多市场参与者共同酿成的。

2023-11-19 11:38:25