On March 14, the 14th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony hosted by China Cement Network was held in Hangzhou. Lin Jiayi, an analyst at the Cement Big Data Research Institute, brought an analysis report entitled "Long night, who holds the fire-China's concrete market operation outlook in 2025".
Lin Jiayi said that in 2024, due to the simultaneous decline in the growth rate of real estate investment and investment in traditional infrastructure, the decline in domestic demand for concrete widened month by month. In 2024, the national concrete output decreased by 10.1% compared with the same period last year, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
By the end of December 2024, the national concrete price index closed at 111.39 points, with a cumulative decline of more than 10% in the whole year. In terms of sub-regions, the price in the southwest region fell the most, with the average annual price index falling by 16.3% compared with that in 2023; the overall price in the northeast region rose, with the average annual price index rising by 1.5% compared with that in 2023.
According to the current forecast of various institutions, the forecast center of real estate development investment decline in 2025 is about 9%, and the forecast of new construction area decline is mostly between 15-20%. According to the data model, Lin Jiayi predicts that in 2025, the decline range of concrete production is about 5-10% year-on-year, and the prediction center is biased to the lower edge of the range.
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