Tapai Group: Cement Demand Will Continue to Decrease in 2024

2024-03-18 13:43:28

Cement demand in 2024 is expected to continue the trend of the previous two years and continue to decrease. The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. It is expected that the demand for infrastructure and rural market will remain stable. The key is whether the growth rate of real estate investment can stabilize and rebound, thus supporting the demand for cement.

Tapai Group issued a record of investor relations activities on March 16, and the company received investor surveys from Guotai Junan, Haifutong Fund Management Co., Ltd. and Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd.

Tapai Group said in the institutional survey that from the shipment data of 2024, the cement market demand recovered slowly after the Spring Festival this year, and has not yet recovered to the level of the same period last year. In terms of price, it has continued the trend since the fourth quarter of last year, in which the Pearl River Delta market has rebounded due to the impact of the reduction of cement in Guangxi.

The company expects that cement demand in 2024 will continue the trend of the previous two years and continue to decrease. The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. It is expected that the demand for infrastructure and rural market will remain stable. The key is whether the growth rate of real estate investment can stabilize and rebound, thus supporting the demand for cement.

Tapai Group introduced the basic situation of the 2023 annual report to investors. Tapai Group said that in 2023, the national cement market demand continued to shrink, showing "insufficient demand, expected weakening, weakening characteristics of off-peak season", the cumulative cement output of the country was about 2.023 billion tons, the same caliber data was 0.7% lower than the same period last year, and the full-caliber output data was about 4.5% lower than the same period last year; According to the data of Guangdong Province, the cumulative consumption of cement in Guangdong Province in 2023 was 147 million tons, down 7% from the same period last year.

In 2023, the profit of the national cement industry was meager, and the loss area of the industry continued to expand. The profit of the cement industry in 2023 was about 32 billion yuan, down about 50% from the same period last year; In 2023, < a href = "https://price.ccement.com/pricenewslist-1-440000-0.2023

year, the Company achieved a cement sales volume of 17.6316 million tons, representing a decrease of 3.46% as compared with the same period of last year." The sales volume of clinker was 888,000 tons, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year, and the total sales volume of cement and clinker was 18.5196 million tons, which was 3.3% lower than that of the same period last year. The operating income was 5.535 billion yuan, which was 8.29% lower than that of the same period last year; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 742 million yuan, up 178 from the same period last year.

According to public information, Guangdong Tapai Group Co., Ltd. is a group company with cement as its main industry, and is listed as one of the 60 large enterprises supported by the structural adjustment of the national cement industry. In 2022, it was ranked 12th in the comprehensive strength of China's cement listed companies. After years of development, Tapai Group has built three major cement production bases in Meizhou and Huizhou of Guangdong Province and Longyan of Fujian Province, with a cement production scale of 22 million tons and more than ten wholly-owned, holding and shareholding concrete enterprises. In the

secondary market, as of the close on March 15, Tapai Group reported 7.68 yuan/share, up 3.92%, with a total market value of 91.

The main situation of this interactive exchange is as follows:

Q: According to the profit distribution plan for 2023 just disclosed by the company, The company's dividend ratio is close to 80%, a record high, what is the main reason, whether the future is sustainable? To sum up, in order to further enhance investors'sense of acquisition and enhance investors' confidence in the company, the company increased the dividend ratio in 2023, hoping to enhance investors' returns by increasing the dividend ratio. In fact, the company has always attached great importance to the return of investors, in the past few years, the company's annual cash dividend has maintained a high proportion, basically around 60%.

In the future, the company will continue to consider comprehensively, continue to implement a sustainable, stable and predictable cash dividend policy, further enhance the return of investors, let investors share the company's operating results, and continuously improve the company's investment value.

Q: From the annual report of 2023, we can see that the income and cost of environmental protection disposal business have increased greatly. Can you introduce the situation of the company's environmental protection disposal business? In 2023, the contribution of environmental protection business to the net profit of the Company increased year by year. The Company mainly operated the sludge disposal project of Huita Environmental Protection and the aluminum ash disposal project of Jiaoling Branch, and the disposal volume increased steadily. The project of co-processing solid waste in

cement kilns has the advantages of less investment in facilities, lower disposal costs and more thorough disposal, which is more competitive and still has great potential. In the next step, the company will further accelerate the construction of solid waste projects, expand the scale of disposal, increase the category of disposal, continuously expand the revenue and profit scale of the environmental protection industry, and form a certain volume and sustainable performance growth point. The

company's environmental protection planning mainly includes: promoting the construction of the 300,000-ton/year general solid waste resources comprehensive utilization project of Jiaoling Branch, which has been approved by the eighth meeting of the fifth board of directors. To promote the construction of Fujian < a href = "https://price.ccement.com/brandnewslist-1-1000093. or more projects, if they meet the requirements of the letter, the company will fulfill the obligation of information disclosure in a timely manner.".

Q: From the annual report of 2023, we have observed that the significant drop in the purchase price of coal has had an important impact on the performance. How much impact does this have on the cost of cement? In addition, are there any more effective cost reduction measures in other aspects? Is there room for future cost reduction?

In the future, there is still room for the reduction of cement cost. We will continue to do a good job in production organization, implement the economic operation mode of cement kilns, strengthen the collocation of production materials, ensure the optimal production cost, strengthen the procurement of materials, especially coal, and strengthen the price research and the scientific determination of order timing and order quantity; We will strengthen the implementation of energy-saving and consumption-reducing technological transformation projects and the application of new technologies to improve the level of intelligence. For example, we will accelerate the implementation progress of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects on the roof of raw material storage sheds in cement production enterprises, further expand the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation, accelerate the construction of user-side energy storage power stations in cement enterprises, and continuously reduce the cost of electricity consumption in enterprises. Speed up the use of alternative fuels, gradually increase the proportion of substitution, further reduce the cost of coal consumption, and so on; strengthen the internal fine management, and reduce all costs that can be reduced. In a word, we will strengthen internal management and cost control in an all-round way, continue to explore more ways to reduce costs and increase efficiency, improve overall operational efficiency and economic benefits, and create greater value for investors.

Q: What is the company's future capital expenditure plan? In the future, the capital expenditure of the company will mainly include technological transformation projects such as ultra-low emission, co-disposal of solid waste in cement kilns, construction of intelligent factories, green mines and first-class safety standard enterprises, aiming at promoting the company's technological progress, environmental protection upgrading and safety production.

Ask: What is the scale of the company's photovoltaic power generation, and what is the proportion of power generation in the company's annual electricity consumption? What is the future plan?

Next, the company will speed up the implementation progress of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects on the roof of raw material stacks in cement production enterprises, further expand the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation, and the scale is expected to increase by one; As at the end of the reporting period, the Company seized the opportunity of the rapid decline in the price of energy storage power station equipment to accelerate the construction of energy storage power stations on the user side of cement enterprises, continuously increase the proportion of clean energy use and continuously reduce the cost of electricity consumption of enterprises.

Ask: What is the energy consumption level of the company's cement clinker production line in the industry? Over the years, the company has always attached great importance to the energy consumption management of cement clinker production lines. Two 10,000-ton production lines of the company have reached the energy efficiency benchmark level, and five 5,000-ton production lines have reached the energy efficiency benchmark level. The company plans to make the energy efficiency of 5000 t/d clinker production line reach the benchmark level as soon as possible through technical transformation and the use of alternative fuels.

Ask: Will the company develop the concrete industry in the future?

At present, the company has 12 wholly-owned, holding and shareholding concrete enterprises, and the company will strive to operate the existing mixing stations well, and actively respond to the decline in concrete demand and the increasing difficulty of loan recovery caused by the deep adjustment of real estate.

For the concrete industry, the company will continue to pay attention to the development trend, changes and opportunities of concrete in the future because of the low entry threshold, small investment amount, more accounts receivable and poor profitability of concrete mixing stations.

Q: We observed that the annual report disclosed that the company added two new companies, Tapai Biology and Tapai New Energy, in 2023. Please introduce the situation of these two companies? What is the impact on the company? As a kind of microorganism beneficial to human body, functional probiotics have attracted wide attention in the health industry in recent years. The company is optimistic about the market prospects in this field and plans to provide consumers with high-quality functional probiotics products through cooperation with competitive research institutes in the industry. At present, we are building a team to do a good job of trial sales before the product goes on the market. If the project meets the requirements of the letter, the company will fulfill the obligation of information disclosure in a timely manner. The

establishment of Guangdong Tapai New Energy Development Co., Ltd. is mainly to explore the investment and operation of new energy storage power stations. At the end of 2023, the price of energy storage power station equipment dropped rapidly, which made the economy of investing in energy storage power stations on the user side and grid side continuously improved, and the demand was relatively stable. The company intends to explore the development of new energy storage power station business. If the project meets the requirements of the letter, the company will fulfill the obligation of information disclosure in a timely manner.

At present, the two newly established companies are actively promoting the preliminary work, and there is no substantial and breakthrough progress. It is expected that it will take a long time to form a certain volume of business income contribution and profit.

Q: We have noticed that the gross profit margin of the company increased in 2023. In addition to the decrease in the cost of cement, the decrease in the price of cement is relatively small, which is less than the statistical data of the association. What is the reason?

Q: Q4 is usually the peak season for cement sales of the company, but from the analysis of the data announced by the company, the price of Q4 cement of the company has declined compared with Q3. What is the reason?

Ask: What is the company's current shipment volume and price? How does the company judge the cement market demand in 2024?

We expect cement demand to continue to decline in 2024, continuing the trend of the previous two years. The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. We expect that the demand for infrastructure and rural market will remain stable. The key is whether the growth rate of real estate investment can stabilize and rebound, thus supporting the demand for cement. In recent years, the relevant ministries and local governments have issued a series of policies to optimize the regulation and control of real estate, such as the liberalization of the purchase restriction policy in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, the reduction of LPR interest rate, the "white list" system of real estate projects under the coordination mechanism of urban real estate financing, etc., in a multi-pronged manner, covering the financing of real estate enterprises, real estate sales, etc. The positive effects have initially appeared, and the volume of real estate transactions in some cities has also increased, which is expected to further stabilize the real estate market. Meanwhile, in 2024, the main expected targets for the economic and social development of Guangdong Province are to increase the GDP by more than 5% and the investment in fixed assets by 4%. In January 2024, the Guangdong Development and Reform Commission announced that 1,508 key projects will be arranged in Guangdong Province in 2024, with an annual planned investment of 1 trillion yuan.

The company will continue to pay close attention to the dynamic changes and development trends of the market, strengthen market research and analysis, rationally adjust production and sales strategies, and strive to create better business performance on the basis of consolidating market share.

At present, the cement industry has serious overcapacity, the impact of peak staggering production on the supply side has declined significantly, the "competition and cooperation relationship" formed over the years has broken down, and the pressure of industry operation has doubled.

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Adani is also a big man in the Indian cement industry and is the second largest cement producer in India. He entered the industry in 2022 with the acquisition of Holcim's cement business in India, which acquired about 70 million tons of cement per year for $10.5 billion. Adani plans to expand its annual cement production capacity to 140 million tons by 2028. Adani has previously invested $1.6 billion to acquire Sanchi Cement and Penna Cement, and is expected to acquire an additional 21 million tons of production capacity.