According to the important means of production market monitoring system of Hunan Provincial Department of Commerce, in January 2024, the average sales price of important means of production in the whole province fell mainly.
(1) Operation
of the cement market in the whole province in January The average price of cement sales in the whole province in January was 333.94 yuan/ton, down 1.4%, down 12% from the same period last year. In terms of varieties, the average selling price of ordinary Portland cement was RMB321.63 per ton, down by 2.5% and 17.2% year-on-year; the average selling price of composite Portland cement was RMB346.25 per ton, down by 0.4% and 6.5% year-on-year.
In January, the cement market price of the whole province fell. Infrastructure construction, major engineering projects and real estate investment have been shut down or closed, and the demand for cement is tepid and generally light. Although cement production enterprises implement peak staggering production, the output continues to decline, but due to weak demand, the market supply is not tight after supply and demand hedging.
(2) The main reasons for the decline in cement market prices are as follows:
First, some kiln lines in Hunan have been opened and replenished, and cement production has rebounded slightly. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, Hunan's cement output from January to December 2023 was 82.8593 million tons, ranking 13th in the country and in the upper middle level. Among them, Hunan's cement output in December was 8.2841 million tons, an increase of 198600 tons, or 2.46%, compared with 8.0855 million tons in November, ranking ninth in the country, up four places from 13th in November. Overcapacity leads to the loss of the basis for the rise of cement prices .
Second, the demand for cement has dropped significantly. In January, the construction progress of construction sites slowed down, the demand for cement continued to be depressed, and the price of cement was under pressure. Before the Spring Festival, the cement enterprises were basically busy with the collection of payments, the business gradually contracted, the transportation force was insufficient, and the demand of infrastructure, real estate and other industries declined;
Third, the support of production costs to cement prices weakened. Coal prices have fallen, and lower production costs have led to lower cement prices.
(3) Research and judgment
on the price trend of cement market in the whole province in February February coincides with the Spring Festival, which is the traditional off-season of consumption in the cement industry. In the short term, the fundamentals of the cement industry will remain unoptimistic; In the long run, the overall pressure of the cement industry still exists. In 2024, three new clinker lines will be put into operation in Hunan Province. In addition, those that should have been put into operation in 2023 will not be put into operation yet, so the pressure on the market supply side will be greater. Under the background that the basic trend of China's economic recovery and long-term improvement remains unchanged, three major projects, namely, the construction of affordable housing, the construction of "dual-use" public infrastructure and the transformation of urban villages, will be accelerated in 2024 to provide a strong guarantee for cement demand. The growth rate of infrastructure construction and major engineering projects in 2024 will be faster than that in 2023, and the decline in real estate investment will slow down, boosting cement demand.
It is expected that the cement market price of the whole province will continue to fluctuate and run weakly in February.
