This year is the seventh year for the Cement Big Data Research Institute to make the top ten forecasts of the industry. In 2024, due to the continuous adjustment of real estate and insufficient capital construction, the demand for cement dropped sharply, the competition among enterprises became more intense, and the efficiency of the industry continued to decline. The decline in cement demand, the increase in excess contradictions, the increase in overseas contributions, and the increase in the number of enterprises withdrawing from the market have all come true, but there have also been some new changes in the market that have exceeded expectations. This year, we will continue to work diligently and diligently, and continue to share the prediction of the development trend of the cement industry, market and enterprises in 2025.
First, demand continues to decline and the decline has narrowed
. Real estate continues to stabilize with the support of a series of "combination punches", but front-end investment such as new construction is difficult to recover in the short term, and the demand for cement in real estate will continue to decline; Benefiting from more active fiscal policy, the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to accelerate, but considering the pressure of local government debt and the change of infrastructure investment structure, the demand for cement at the infrastructure end is difficult to increase. We expect that in 2025, cement production will decrease by 5% -8% year-on-year, and the decline will be narrowed.
According to incomplete statistics, five new capacity replacement projects are planned to be built in 2024, a decrease of 50% compared with the same period last year. The planned capacity is 7.307 million tons, and most of the replacement projects are technological upgrading or relocation. Heavy policy documents such as the Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industry (2024 edition) and the Notice on Further Standardizing Capacity Management in the Cement Industry have been issued successively to guide enterprises to produce in compliance with regulations. It is expected that the number of new replacement projects will continue to decrease and the number of cases of capacity replenishment will increase in 2025, but at the same time, it will also face problems such as limited indicators and increasing cross-provincial difficulties.
In 2024, a total of 11 cement clinker production lines were fired nationwide, with a total capacity of 14.74 million tons, and 52 were withdrawn, involving a capacity of 38.25 million tons. At the end of the year, the clinker production capacity was about 1.76 billion tons, a net decrease of 23.52 million tons compared with 2022. It is expected that 8 new lines (with a capacity of about 12 million tons) will be put into operation in 2025. Although the number of production will continue to decrease, the contradiction of industry surplus will become more acute in the context of a greater decline in demand.
Fourth,
we believe that as enterprises continue to respond to the call of the "anti-involution" industry, strengthen self-discipline and increase the intensity of peak staggering, it is expected that the market will return to normalization in 2025, and the fluctuation space will be narrowed, showing the characteristics of "rising with a top and falling with a limited margin". The current start is relatively good, and the annual average price has risen slightly. As the demand for cement is still in the downward channel, it is expected that the profits of the industry will be better, but the overall low bottom is difficult to improve significantly.
Fifth, in July
2024, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee first mentioned "strengthening industry self-discipline and preventing vicious competition of involution", and in December 2024, the Central Economic Work Conference was upgraded to "comprehensively rectifying competition of involution". The "anti-involution" work in the cement industry has achieved phased results. As the central government pays more attention to the "involution" competition, the cement industry will intensify efforts to promote the "anti-involution" work in 2025, and the industry environment will continue to purify.
After three years of industry low ebb period and big wave period, many enterprises with poor competitiveness and low efficiency have suffered serious losses, lack of confidence in development, and the voice of withdrawing from the market is increasing day by day. The time for large enterprises to start is relatively ripe. Recently, Jidong Cement has fired the "first shot" of mergers and acquisitions in the domestic market in the Northeast market, which has aroused strong repercussions in the industry. It is expected that the number of mergers and acquisitions projects in the cement industry will increase in 2025, and there will be a small climax in stages.
An industry ecology with high market concentration and good competition pattern is a necessary prerequisite for the cement industry to achieve high-quality development. In recent years, the cement industry has made little progress in improving its concentration. At present, the concentration of clinker production capacity of the top ten enterprises is about 56%, which is far behind the developing countries in Europe and the United States. With the accelerated pace of mergers and acquisitions of leading enterprises and the accelerated withdrawal of low-benefit enterprises from the market, the industry concentration will be improved.
8. Continuous release of overseas production capacity and significant increase
in performance contribution In 2024, the pace of Chinese-funded enterprises going out was significantly accelerated, three new overseas production lines were put into operation, clinker production capacity was 6.36 million, and Taiwan Cement completed the acquisition of relevant cement companies in Turkey and Portugal. The total overseas clinker production capacity of Chinese-funded enterprises has expanded to about 90 million tons, and the overseas income of Huaxin and other enterprises has increased significantly. In 2025, with the completion and commissioning of overseas production lines of leading enterprises of Western Cement, Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, it is expected that overseas business will continue to develop. It is an indisputable fact that there is a serious surplus of aggregate and commercial concrete in
new energy
cement and its upstream and downstream industries. It is an important step and a key measure for transformation and upgrading to open up new businesses and rush to new tracks. In the long run, new energy businesses such as photovoltaic power generation and green energy storage have bright prospects, but cement enterprises are less involved. At present, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the cement industry is less than 2G W, accounting for a relatively low proportion. It is expected that in 2025, cement enterprises will continue to increase investment in the field of new energy and make new breakthroughs in transformation and upgrading. The
cement industry is the third largest carbon emitter after power and steel. Reducing carbon emissions in the cement industry is of great significance to achieving the goal of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality". At present, the Work Plan for the National Carbon Emission Trading Market Covering Cement, Steel and Electrolytic Aluminum Industries (Draft for Comments) has been issued, and the cement industry has taken substantial steps to be incorporated into the carbon market. It is expected that it will be formally incorporated into the carbon trading market this year, which will have a far-reaching impact on the industry.
