This year is the fifth year for the Cement Big Data Research Institute to make the top ten forecasts of the industry. 2022 is a special year in China's economic development, and it is more difficult to forecast the market under the superposition of multiple factors that exceed expectations. Under the impact of the slowdown of the real estate industry and the severe epidemic situation, the development of the cement industry has encountered major difficulties, the demand has been sluggish throughout the year, and the benefits of the industry have shrunk dramatically. This year, we will summarize the shortcomings, be diligent and responsible, and continue to share the prediction of the development trend of the cement industry, market and enterprises in 2023.
First, the drag factor of real estate is still & nbsp; Demand for cement will continue to decline
. Under the policy requirement of "no speculation in housing", real estate investment is difficult to recover, and the drag factor of real estate on cement demand is still there. Under the pressure of steady growth, there is still room for infrastructure to develop, and the pull of infrastructure on cement demand will be improved, but the range is limited. We expect that cement production will continue to decline in 2023, and the decline will be significantly narrower than that in 2022.
II. Clinker production capacity is stable and tends to decline
In 2022, 13 cement clinker production lines were ignited nationwide, with a total capacity of 23.5 million tons, and 47 were withdrawn, involving 29.51 million tons. At the end of the year, the actual clinker production capacity was about 1.8 billion tons, a net decrease of 6.02 million tons compared with 2021. In 2023, more than 30 new lines (with a capacity of 44.52 million tons) are planned to be put into operation, but under the poor market environment, it is expected that the production progress will fall short of expectations, the total clinker production capacity will decline steadily, and the southwest, Guangxi and other places will face the pressure of increasing overcapacity.
In 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued a document to promote the normalization of off-peak production in the cement industry. After two years of practice, this policy has been vigorously promoted and implemented in 2022. Under the pressure of declining market demand in 2023, peak-staggering production, as the core measure of supply-side reform, is expected to be further strengthened.
IV. The peak of the industry has passed & nbsp; The replacement of production capacity has been reduced
. From 2020 to 2021, the cement industry is in the peak moment, the replacement of production capacity is in full swing, and new production lines are built one after another. In 2022, the high level dropped sharply, especially in the fourth quarter of the second half of the year, no replacement projects and new production lines were announced in all regions. It is expected that cement clinker replacement projects will be further reduced this year under the dual constraints of stricter policies and declining demand. V. Downward shift of
cement price center & nbsp; Industry benefits are hard to say optimistic
We believe that under the influence of weak demand and high base, the center of gravity of the average price of cement for the whole year of 2023 will continue to move down. In terms of benefits, the price of coal is expected to be stable with a slight drop under the slightly widened supply and demand pattern in 2023, coupled with the promotion of alternative fuel technology, the industry benefits are expected to remain relatively stable under the easing of production cost pressure of cement enterprises; however, in general, the industry benefits are difficult to be optimistic due to the decline in demand, the downward price and the high cost, and it is expected to be stable as a whole.
VI. Accelerate the construction of a unified market In March
2022, the Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified National Market were issued, aiming at breaking through the key blockages restricting the economic cycle, breaking local protection and market segmentation, and speeding up the construction of a unified national market. With the continuous improvement of China's transportation infrastructure, the "short leg" attribute of cement is expected to be further broken, regional mobility will continue to increase, and market competition will become increasingly fierce.
7. Merger and reorganization & nbsp; Continuous optimization of
competition pattern Since October 2022, more than 10 cement enterprises have frequently transferred their cement assets, which rarely happened before. The operating environment in 2022 is similar to that in 2015, with many mergers and acquisitions after the sharp shrinkage of industry benefits. From 2015 to 2016, the concentration of the top ten clinker production capacity increased from 52.7% to 55.8%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, and the concentration of the top ten clinker production capacity in 2022 was about 60%. It is expected that the merger and reorganization of cement industry will be accelerated in 2023, the market control ability of large enterprises will continue to be enhanced, and the market competition pattern is expected to be further optimized.
8. Expand the industrial chain & nbsp; Actively transform and upgrade
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the demand of the cement industry will enter the downward channel, and the era of high cost is coming. How to cultivate new profit growth points and achieve transformation and upgrading has become an important issue for the cement industry to consider. In 2022, Conch Cement , the leading enterprise , expanded the cement industry chain, spared no effort to develop the new energy industry, and Red Lion Group established the "cement + polysilicon" dual-industry development pattern, which played a guiding role in the transformation of the industry. It is expected that in 2023, the cement industry will make great efforts to broaden the industrial chain, actively transform and upgrade, and open up a new situation. In
2022, a series of energy saving and carbon reduction policies for the cement and building materials industry, such as the Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak in the Industrial Sector and the Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak in the Building Materials Industry, have been issued successively, pointing out the direction for the high-quality development of the cement industry. In 2023, as the beginning and key year of implementing the policy of carbon peak in cement industry, it is expected that the industry will make new breakthroughs and progress in reducing the energy consumption level of products and replacing raw materials and fuels.
X. fatigue of Global Consumption Demand In
2023, the world economy and industrial development are still facing many challenges and uncertainties. In October 2022, the International Monetary Fund predicted that the world economic growth rate would be 3.2%, down 2.8 percentage points from 2021, and the downward pressure on the global economy would increase. WCA predicts that the global demand for cement will not increase in 2023, and some countries will have a large amount of overcapacity. 2023 will be a difficult year for the development of the cement industry.
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