(I) Operation
of the cement market in Hunan Province from January to June The average price of cement sales in Hunan Province from January to June 2024 was in a downward channel and rebounded after bottoming out in May. Year-on-year decline. Cement prices fell
In February, due to the shortage of funds, the weak start of real estate, the slow start of infrastructure investment and other factors, the actual demand of the cement industry has not yet followed up, the market demand is weaker than the same period in previous years, and the cement price is under pressure;
in March, the supply and demand of the cement market are both weak, and the overall price falls;
In April, the price of cement continued to fall, the market transactions improved, and the prosperity of the industry improved;
in May, the price of cement continued to fall, showing the overall characteristics of "shrinking demand, high inventory, fierce competition, and low price"; After the implementation of the
new national standard, the production cost of the cement industry increased, the tightening of energy saving and carbon reduction policies led to the contraction of the supply side of the cement industry, the support of macroeconomic policies to the cement industry and the continuous decline of cement prices this year, the rising sentiment of the industry and other factors offset the impact of weak demand in the cement market, and the cement market price rose in June.
From January to June, the highest average price of cement sales in the province was 341.94 yuan/ton on January 7, the lowest price was 295.18 yuan/ton on May 12, and the price difference between the highest point and the lowest point was 46.76 yuan/ton, with the largest drop of 13.67%.
(2) The cement market in the first half of the year was mainly characterized
by a steady and slight increase in cement supply. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cement output of Hunan Province from January to May 2024 was 26.2589 million tons, ranking 12th in the country, up one place from 13th in January-April, and in the upper middle level of the country. Among them, the cement output of Hunan Province in May was 6.6015 million tons, ranking 12th in the country, which was the same as that in April, and increased by 508,000 tons compared with 6.0935 million tons in April, with an increase of 8.34%.
Second, the demand for cement was not strong in the peak season and weaker in the off-season. Cement demand is mainly driven by real estate investment, and infrastructure investment can not hedge the decline in demand for cement caused by the decline in real estate investment.
According to the basic situation of the national real estate market from January to May 2024 published by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, the national real estate development investment was 4063.2 billion yuan, down 10.1% from the same period last year (calculated on a comparable basis); of which, the residential investment was 3082.4 billion yuan, down 10.6%. From January to May, the capital in place of real estate development enterprises was 4257.1 billion yuan, down 24.3% from the same period last year.
In June, the demand for cement in the whole province was weaker, and the survey of three sample enterprises showed that the volume of cement out of the warehouse showed a downward trend for four consecutive weeks. The flood season affects the progress of the project, and there is no rush work in the middle of the year.
(III) Research and judgment
on the price trend of the cement market in the whole province in the second half of the year From the perspective of various factors, the cement industry was flat in the first half of the year, and in the second half of the year, under the stimulation of the steady growth policy, the physical workload of the project landing was expected to increase. There will be competition in demand and cost control in the
cement industry for a long time in the future, and the market competitiveness of leading enterprises will continue to increase, which will play a positive role in stabilizing cement prices and avoiding disorderly competition in the cement industry.
With the formal implementation of the new national standard and the normalization of kiln shutdown, the cement industry passes on the cost pressure by raising the sales price, but the decline in cement market demand makes it difficult to implement the price increase completely.
It is expected that the cement market price of the whole province in the second half of the year will be higher than that in the first half of the year, but the extent and sustainability of the price increase will depend on the stability and recovery of the real estate industry.
