On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly. At the meeting, Liu Xiaodan, a researcher at the Cement Big Data Research Institute, made a keynote report on China's aggregate market outlook for 2024.
Liu Xiaodan introduced the operation of the sand and gravel industry in 2023. Liu Xiaodan pointed out that in 2023, China's sand and gravel industry experienced double pressures of weak demand and capacity release.
< IMG SRC = "Since the https://img7.ccement.com/richtext/img/i4njr9i5a091712125536757.2021 up, the demand for sand and gravel in China has been weak, but the production capacity of sand and gravel has been continuously released." As a result, the price of sand and gravel continued to decline.
By the end of December 2023, the National Gravel Price Index (CSPI) closed at 85.32 points, up 0.92% annually, down 3. Year-on-year decline of 5.
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sand and gravel industry is beginning to regain its cooling-off period after a feverish peak in previous years.". The price of sand and gravel began to fall because of the cold demand for sand and gravel. In 2023, the average price of machine-made sand in cities along the Yangtze River dropped by about 2-4 yuan, or 3-4%, and in 2022, the average price dropped by about 13 yuan, or between 12% and 15%. It's more obvious. In 2023, the overall decline in sand and gravel prices in cities near the Yangtze River narrowed.
Looking at the demand of cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, it will be better than that of cities in the upper reaches, and the prices of cities in the middle and lower reaches will be stronger. The situation in the Xijiang River Basin is roughly the same as that in the Yangtze River Basin.
Focus on the key trend of the Yangtze River Basin, the rapid expansion of production capacity, overcapacity is inevitable.
Liu Xiaodan introduced that in 2023, the national output of sand and gravel was 14.973 billion tons, down from the same period last year. 2. Real estate investment continued to bottom out, making the demand for sand and gravel obviously insufficient. In the current market environment of oversupply, the output of sand and gravel largely depends on demand. In 2023, the production of sand and gravel declined year on year. There are two determinants of demand, infrastructure and real estate. Real estate is the decisive factor at present. Real estate is still declining, but the trend is slowing down.
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mining rights have been released. In 2023, more than 25 billion tons
of resources were sold. Liu Xiaodan introduced that in 2023, there were 939 transactions of sand and gravel mining rights in China, with a total resource reserve of 254.
In 2023, there were 9 provinces with more than 1 billion tons of resources and 6 provinces with more than 1.5 billion tons of resources.
From the regional analysis, the southern region releases mining rights intensively, most provinces and cities release more than 1 billion tons of reserves of mining rights, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and other places are less, each province releases less than 100 million tons of reserves.
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: As the sand and gravel industry gradually returns to rationality, the transaction price of sand and gravel mining rights also falls accordingly.". In 2023, the transaction unit price of sand and gravel mining rights in China was 3.16 yuan/ton (3.82 yuan/ton in 2022), representing a year-on-year decrease of 17.3% and a decrease of 0.
Cities with a larger decrease in the unit price of mining rights: Zhejiang, Hunan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Shanxi and Shaanxi.
Liu Xiaodan said that in 2023, 39 new aggregates were put into production, with a capacity of 243 million tons, down 57.61% from the same period last year, and 187 were planned to be built, with a scale of 764 million. Year-on-year decline of 45.
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demand is insufficient and production capacity is excessive." It is expected that the price will decline steadily and the profit will be compressed
. In 2022, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will be 9.4%. In 2023, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will be 5. In 2024, the focus of government investment will shift from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure, and the demand for sand and gravel aggregate in modern new infrastructure will be significantly lower than that in traditional infrastructure.
In 2023, investment in real estate development declined 9. These factors together made it difficult for the growth rate of real estate investment to rebound significantly in 2024. In
2024, several large-scale aggregate projects will be put into operation one after another. For example, the annual output of 20 million tons of Huanggongshan Mine in Zongyang, the annual output of 40 million tons of Hengshan Mine in Guichi, and the annual output of 15 million tons of yuanchong Mine in Hanshan, Anhui Province; China Power Construction Huadu Project with an annual output of 11.1 million tons, Guangdong Yangxi Fenghuangling Project with an annual output of 30 million tons, Hubei Xishui Phase II Project with an annual output of 20 million tons, Hainan Wanning Project with an annual output of 5 million tons, Hubei Qichun Sandstone Mine with an annual output of 70 million tons, Yunfu Guanyinshan Mine with an annual output of 35 million tons; Hengjin Mining Phase I Project with an annual output of 20 million tons; The first phase of the project with an annual output of 20 million tons of sand and gravel invested by Washi Mine, and the project with an annual output of 12 million tons of sand and gravel invested by Jiangxi Ruiya New Material, etc. The effective demand of
sand and gravel industry is insufficient, and the industry is facing the risk of overcapacity. The orders of sand and equipment enterprises have decreased, the profit margin of enterprises has declined, and there are many potential risks. Liu Xiaodan expects the price of sand and gravel to decline steadily, and the profit margin may be further squeezed.
Liu Xiaodan said that 2024 may usher in a "shuffle year" for the sand and gravel industry. With the competition and cooperation of China Power Construction, China Energy Construction, China Building Materials and < a href = "https://price.ccement.com/brandnewslist-1-1000035.
" large enterprises becoming normal, the progress of strong-strong alliance and upstream and downstream alliance will be further strengthened. In recent years, large-scale building materials, cement, engineering, concrete and other upstream and downstream industries have been cooperating more and more closely. In particular, the integration trend of the traditional building materials industry chain of cement-commercial mix-aggregate is obvious, and engineering units, ports and wharfs are gradually joining in. China Power Construction, China Building Materials, China Energy Construction, < a href = "https://price.ccement.com/brandnewslist-1-1000026.
sand and gravel enterprises and equipment enterprises, the market demand for internal volume upgrading
continues to decline." The supply of sand and gravel has increased dramatically. From supply exceeding demand to supply exceeding demand, sand and gravel owners are increasingly controlling the cost and energy consumption. Peers assert that the price war in the sand and gravel industry will be carried out in the future, and will soon enter the dangerous situation of "1 yuan decides life and death".
Liu Xiaodan predicts that the high-end fine aggregate market will continue to strengthen in the future. The general aggregate market is already fighting in the Red Sea, while the high-end fine aggregate market is still the blue sea market. The market is depressed and the price of building materials is generally low. High-quality machine-made sand and stone can reduce the use of high-cost materials such as cement and cementitious materials in commercial mixing, improve the quality of commercial mixing and reduce the cost. It calls on enterprises to produce high-end high-quality aggregates.
Equipment enterprises pay more attention to the needs of owners and upgrade internally.With the transformation and upgrading of the sand and gravel industry and the shuffling of the industry, the competition among sand and gravel equipment enterprises will become more intense, and all-round competition will be launched in terms of price, quality, intelligence and service.
