first half of this year, the growth rate of infrastructure investment was 5.4%, the growth rate slowed down in the year, the investment in real estate development decreased by 10.1% year on year, and the new construction area was in a state of deep decline, down 23.7% year on year. Affected by the continuous bottoming of real estate investment and the slowdown of infrastructure investment, the demand for cement continued to decline. Statistics from
the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the national cement output was 850 million tons, down 10% from the same period last year, and the absolute value fell by 10.76%, hitting a new low since 2011. The industry as a whole presents the operational characteristics of "shrinking demand, fierce competition, low prices and operating losses".
However, in the overall downturn of the national cement industry, the situation of Hebei cement market is relatively good.
Demand support + industry self-discipline Hebei market situation is better than
big data of China Cement Network. Since this year, the overall price of Hebei cement has shown a steady upward trend, especially in Tangshan and other places in northern Hebei, the cement market situation is obviously better than that in most parts of the country. Li Wenxiu
, chairman
of Tangshan Shenglong Cement Co., Ltd., Luanxian Panshi Cement Co., Ltd. and Hebei Shuguang Qiangxing Cement Co., Ltd.
, said in an exchange with China Cement Network that the overall performance of Hebei cement market was mainly due to two reasons. On the
demand side, the cement industry in Hebei Province enjoys the advantages of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Circle, coupled with the construction of Xiongan New Area, the demand for cement is strong. At present, the promotion of key infrastructure investment projects such as Jingbin high-speed rail, Xiongxin high-speed rail and Jingtang high-speed rail has also boosted local cement demand. According to the
data, the decline of cement demand in Hebei is significantly lower than national average. The latest data show that from January to July, the cement output in Hebei was 54.7481 million tons, down 4.4% from the same period last year, compared with the absolute decline of the national cement output by 11.12%. In terms of
industry self-discipline, local cement enterprises have formed a good competitive and cooperative relationship in the face of the downward trend of the industry. Most enterprises realize that ensuring the basic benefits of the industry is the key to maintaining the development trend of the industry, and can actively avoid the vicious competition of involution. The enterprise is in place in the implementation of peak staggering production, and it is expected that the number of days of kiln shutdown will be 150-200 days this year.
Li Wenxiu also pointed out that in the process of industry collaboration, it is difficult for all enterprises to maintain one heart, but we should have an inclusive attitude to maintain regional market stability as the primary goal, to avoid market trampling and vicious competition caused by individual enterprises not abiding by the "rules".
"In Tangshan, our three factories (Tangshan Shenglong Cement Co., Ltd., Luanxian Panshi Cement Co., Ltd., Hebei Shuguang Qiangxing Cement Co., Ltd.) And Jidong Cement together account for about 80% of the production capacity, in the market competition, it is inevitable that individual enterprises take advantage, but we have a high degree of concentration, can properly accommodate these enterprises." Maintain Tangshan market, Tangshan market is the anchor of Hebei market, Tangshan is stable, Hebei market will be stable, Li Wenxiu said.
As a "veteran" of the industry, Li Wenxiu has personally experienced the ups and downs of the cement industry for decades. Faced with the current difficulties, Li Wenxiu believes that solidifying the market and share is to stabilize the development trend of the industry and steadily promote capacity removal. Under the background of the sharp decline in demand, the key to the "soft landing" of the industry.
"In 2015, the industry was also fighting a price war, with cement falling to 120 yuan per ton, but the industry soon formed a consensus of" competition and cooperation "under the guidance of structural reform on the supply side, and gradually ushered in a turning point in the second half of 2016," Li Wenxiu said. At present, the cement industry should also be fully aware of the harm brought by the vicious competition of involution, unify the understanding and safeguard the interests of the industry.
Li Wenxiu also pointed out that domestic cement demand in ten years, from 2 billion tons to about 1 billion tons is probably the event, in the face of a sharp decline in demand, to capacity is the inevitable choice of the industry, to capacity is only two ways.
Firstly, through market competition to reduce production capacity, this method is the simplest and most effective, which can eliminate and shut down a large number of cement enterprises in the shortest time, but the negative impact is too great, a large number of enterprises go bankrupt, resulting in asset shrinkage, bad debts of banks and unemployment of employees.
"Especially in the current economic environment, enterprises should not only pay attention to economic benefits, but also have the feelings of home and country, and have a sense of social responsibility. Only when enterprises make profits can they be maintained in the long run, can they ensure employment, bring income to employees and create value for society. If everyone is unemployed and has no income, there will be no one to consume." The economic situation may be more difficult, Li Wenxiu stressed that in the face of difficulties, enterprises must have a sense of responsibility and their own feelings.
Second, through market synergy, maintain the basic benefits of the industry and steadily reduce production capacity. This method has a long cycle, and the industry will face the problem of overcapacity for a long time, but it can realize the value of cement as a resource-consuming industry, minimize the impact of the decline in market demand on the industry, realize the "soft landing" of the industry, and more importantly, ensure employment and employee income, which is conducive to economic recovery and development.
Li Wenxiu: "The more the economy goes down, the more we need to stabilize employment and income. It is inevitable to reduce production capacity, but we can choose how to reduce production capacity. At present, it is crucial to solidify the market, solidify the share and maintain the basic industry efficiency.". In the first half of
2024, with the support of good market synergy and stable market demand, the cement industry in Hebei is in good shape. Looking forward to the future, Li Wenxiu believes that there are still many challenges and the contradiction between supply and demand will intensify, but the industry must keep its bottom line, avoid vicious competition, serve the society and serve the economic development.
"If one day we have to fight a price war, we will not shrink back, but before that, we will do our best to avoid a hard landing in the industry, which is the responsibility of an enterprise," Li Wenxiu finally stressed.
