war pushed Ukraine's cement industry from the peak to the bottom, and forced a new curve of "export survival" in the ruins. The national cement output of Ukraine once reached 11 million tons in 2021. After the comprehensive attack of the Russian army, it dropped to 5.4 million tons in 2022, almost halved. In the following two years, it climbed slowly to 7.43 million tons in 2023 and 7.93 million tons in 2024. The industry expects that it will return to 8 million tons in 2025, but there is still a gap of about 30% from the pre-war level. The
demand structure has been completely rewritten by the battlefield. The residential and commercial real estate that once supported cement consumption gave way to trenches, bunkers, bridge repair and government targeted resettlement housing, and infrastructure and defense projects became the biggest buyers in the short term. From 2023 to 2024, it was this "wartime rigid demand" that supported the industry's operating rate and enabled enterprises to maintain their operation in artillery fire and blackouts.
However, with the gradual saturation of front-line fortifications and the shift of financial priorities to armaments and energy, domestic cement consumption began to show signs of weakness. The excess capacity can only be exported: in 2021, the export volume is only 970,000 tons, accounting for 9% of the total output; by 2024, it has increased to 1.7 million tons, accounting for 21%, almost all of which are sold to neighboring countries such as Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Moldova, becoming the key valve to balance domestic supply and demand.
Market concentration has been further improved in the war. Ivano-Frankivskcement in the western state of Lviv and the Kryvyi Rih Cement of CRH Group in Ireland have almost monopolized the remaining effective capacity by virtue of mining resources, railway corridors and self-contained power stations. It is worth noting that CRH is planning to acquire the assets of Dyckerhoff/Buzzi in Ukraine. Once the transaction lands, Ukraine's largest cement group will be directly connected to the global procurement, financing and logistics network, which will not only bring funds for modernization, but also hopefully play the role of "stable supplier" in the post-war reconstruction. Make up lessons for the quality, environmental protection and cost competitiveness of the industry.