Colombia's industrial sector is facing energy uncertainty and rising costs, and natural gas shortages are expected by 2026. According to the estimates of the Joint Industrial Opinion Survey (Eoic) prepared by the National Association of Entrepreneurs of Colombia (Andi) and other industry organizations, companies are expected to secure only 51.9% of the natural gas needed for their operations in 2026, while the price may increase by 50.8% from the current level. Cement prices are expected to rise by more than 100%.
At present, Colombia's domestic natural gas production has been unable to meet internal demand, which has forced the industrial sector to rely more and more on imports. The situation has led to a sustained rise in operating costs in key industries such as steel, cement, oil refining, food and transportation, which not only threatens the country's competitiveness, but also raises concerns about the stability of energy supply in the medium term. Gas prices in the industrial sector rose from $3.89 per million British thermal units (mbtu) in 2020 to $6.75 in 2025, a 32% increase in five years,
according to Asoenerg Asoenergía, Colombia's association of large industrial and commercial energy consumers. Gas market regulators have warned that the gas shortfall for basic and industrial needs could reach 20% in 2026, a situation that has put major production sectors on alert.
Industry is the largest natural gas consuming sector in Colombia. The industrial sector used 243 million cubic feet of the country's 844.8 million cubic feet of gas per day in July, or nearly 30% of national consumption, according to the country's Chamber of Commerce for Oil, Gas and Energy (Campetrol). This was followed by thermal power plants (181 million cubic feet), the oil industry (139 million cubic feet) and the residential sector (156 million cubic feet). On behalf of the steel industry, the
Colombian Steel Chamber of Commerce, a subsidiary of Andi, expressed concern about the shortage of natural gas and rising prices. Daniel Rey, executive director of the chamber, explained to The Columbian that natural gas accounts for nearly 10% of the cost of processing steel products, such as rebar, but with new contract conditions, it could exceed 20%. Between 2024 and 2026, the price of natural gas in the sales process increased by 38% year on year,
Lei pointed out. According to his forecast, "if regulatory conditions remain unchanged in 2026, industrial natural gas contract prices could reach $22.3 per million British thermal units, compared with the current price of $10.1 per million British thermal units", which means that natural gas prices could rise by 121% next year, more pessimistic than Andi survey's estimate.
In addition, he stressed that this price increase was due to a combination of regulatory, logistical and market factors that put the sustainability and competitiveness of the entire Colombian steel industry at risk. He also warned that steel production costs would increase, affecting companies' monthly cash flow.
"Domestic natural gas production can not meet demand, which forces companies to buy imported natural gas.". In addition, domestic available natural gas is given priority to supply basic needs (households, refineries and transportation), and the industrial sector can only rely on imported natural gas with higher prices, the expert explained to the media.
He also noted that these higher energy costs will squeeze profit margins and may force some factories to temporarily reduce production.
The cement industry is also facing difficulties. Carlos Horacio Justi (Carlos Horacio Yusty), the regional vice-president of Cementos Argos in Colombia, told El Colombiano that due to the lack of natural gas supply and high prices. The company reduced self-generation from natural gas at its Tolu Viejo and Cartagena plants. This makes them more dependent on the external power grid
, Yusti noted, warning that power rationing could occur in the short term. He also highlighted the impact of this lack of primary energy on industry in the NT. The increasing cost of
natural gas and the uncertainty of supply have prompted some businesses to consider alternatives. Speaking at the Forum "The Future of the Energy Sector" organized by Cree and Anif, Rodolfo Anaya, President of the Vanti Group, warned that natural gas prices could double or even triple next year, as most of the supply would come from imports. Some industries are already considering shifting production to other countries or returning to alternative fuels such as coal or fuel oil. "An industry that currently buys $9 per MMBtu of natural gas may have to pay $20 next year because 65% of its supply will come from imports, which they do not currently use,
" Ania explained. The president of the Vanti Group estimated that his company could lose up to 15% of its non-regulated demand and mentioned that some sectors could shift production from Colombia to Peru.
Ania also warned that "we may need to implement temporary blackouts for large industries" if key hydrological conditions occur next year and thermal power plants have to operate at full capacity. According
to Andi's survey, 79% of enterprises will switch to alternative fuels, 21% plan to import natural gas and 12% expect to reduce production in the case of insufficient natural gas supply. In addition to other options such as electricity, biomass and biodiesel, alternative fuels considered include:
-Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): 37.3%.
-Renewable energy sources such as solar and/or thermal energy: 21.6%.
-Liquid fuels such as diesel: 19.6%.
-Propane: 19.6%.
-Coal: 9.8%.
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