2023, China's cement industry as a whole showed a "cold" state, with insufficient demand, weakening expectations and overcapacity becoming the consensus of the industry. According to the data of
China Cement Network, the national cement output in 2023 was 2.023 billion tons, with an absolute decline of 107 million tons, or 5%; the national cement price index (CEMPI) dropped by 20% in the year; The total profit of the cement industry was more than 32 billion yuan, a decline of about 51%. Will things get better this year?
Recently, a number of cement listed companies have been surveyed by institutions and expressed their views and judgments on the market trend this year.
Tianshan shares disclosed on the evening of April 16 that the current domestic cement industry is in a complex, severe and difficult period, with demand declining year by year, but there is still a large volume of about 2 billion tons in 2023. As per capita consumption matches the international level, it will decline to the next demand platform in the medium and long term.
Industry practitioners have experienced a decline in performance in recent years, hoping to get out of the predicament and enter a stable and healthy development stage of rational competition, price recovery, profit improvement and reasonable profit margin.
The company cautiously and optimistically predicts that the domestic cement demand in 2024 will decline slightly compared with the same period last year, and the business situation will be low before and high after, and the second half of the year will be better than the first half.
On April 15, Conch Cement held its 2023 annual performance presentation.
For the follow-up market situation, Conch Cement said that the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry is still complex and severe this year, and the demand for infrastructure is expected to rise steadily under the pull of treasury bonds, but the negative impact of the real estate downturn will continue, and the demand for cement market will decline slightly throughout the year. After
the market competition, the business strategy of the enterprise tends to be rational, and there is a strong willingness to increase the off-peak production and stabilize the market. It is expected that the cement price will continue to fluctuate in 2024.
In this context, inefficient enterprises will gradually withdraw, and industry concentration will be improved.
On April 12, the record of Huaxin Cement 's investor relations activities was released that the domestic demand for cement will certainly not improve significantly this year, and it is estimated that the overall demand will be flat or slightly lower than last year. The decline in demand is an overall trend , and this year is probably the same trend, but it will not be as much as some peers imagine.
Domestic cement prices have now basically reached the bottom. With the disclosure of the first quarterly report, it is expected that enterprises will face greater performance pressure, which also brings impetus to the price increase. Overall, the future price of cement should be a rising trend.
Jidong Cement disclosed on April 8 that in 2024, the cement industry will continue to be difficult and will continue to maintain the characteristics of reduction, differentiation and integration. Cement overcapacity, demand is expected to decline to a certain extent, the price is at a historical low, the national cement market is expected to appear shock adjustment, low before and high after the trend.
