On March 28-29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. At the meeting, Chen Tianyu, Assistant General Manager of China Coal Resources Network, made the theme report of "2024 Power Coal Market Trend Analysis and Prospect".
Chen Tianyu said that changes in government investment projects are likely to lower expectations for infrastructure growth, with the growth rate of infrastructure investment likely to fall slightly from 8.2% in 2023 to about 7%. < a href = "https://price.ccement.
Chen Tianyu believes that in 2024, the policy will shift from increasing production and guaranteeing supply to stabilizing production and guaranteeing supply, and the expansion of coal production capacity will be narrowed, and it is expected to withdraw 20 million tons of production capacity, including 8 million tons of thermal coal and 12 million tons of coking coal.".
Macroeconomic review and outlook
Real estate: Although the central bank and various departments have increased policy support for real estate from both supply and demand sides, such as the downward trend of mortgage interest rates, first-tier cities have also optimized their purchase restriction policies. However, the elasticity of market feedback (volume and price) is relatively limited. It is judged that the decline of real estate development investment may be narrowed, but the narrowing range is relatively limited, the growth rate will rise from 9.5% in 2023 to 8%
in January-February, and the annual real estate development investment will be-9.0%
Infrastructure: Changes in government investment projects may also further lower expectations for infrastructure growth, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment may continue to decline from 8. Cement prices in 2023.
Consumption: May face "solid foundation, lack of flexibility".
Service consumption has entered a new stage of expansion and low satisfaction, and the typical representative is the Spring Festival holiday travel data. In terms of
physical consumption, real estate-related consumption (such as furniture, building materials, etc.) Is still dragged down by new and second-hand housing transactions; automobile-related consumption, new energy vehicle ownership reached a peak in the fourth quarter of 2022, and then began to decline, indicating that the upward elasticity may be insufficient.
Chen Tianyu believes that the short-term production side of the current economy performs well, while the demand side still needs attention; on the external demand side, short-term uncertainty and medium- and long-term certainty are intertwined. In terms of
policy, it is expected to continue the overall tone of "stabilizing the total amount and emphasizing the structure", and the possibility of vigorously stimulating the total amount is relatively small. GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to be 4.
< IMG SRC = "Overall, https://img7.ccement.com/richtext/img/cubepxgqq5q1712028612239.
." At present, the domestic coal production capacity has been relatively abundant, and the expansion of production capacity will be narrowed in 2024. In terms of the increment of each year,
the annual production capacity will increase by 248 million tons in 2023, including 221 million tons of thermal coal and 27 million tons of coking coal;
In 2023, 21 million tons of production capacity will be withdrawn, including 15 million tons of thermal coal and 6 million tons of coking coal;
in 2024, it is estimated that 124 million tons of production capacity will be added, including 99 million tons of thermal coal and 26 million tons of coking coal;
In 2024, 20 million tons of production capacity are expected to be withdrawn, including 8 million tons of steam coal and 12 million tons of coking coal;
< IMG SRC = "From January to February of the https://img7.ccement.com/richtext/img/41qe4p1hp4l1712028637814.2024
year, the output of raw coal was 710 million tons. Decreased by -4.2% compared with the same period last year, and increased by 1% in December last year.
Among them, the output of Shanxi Province was 177 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of -18.1%; the output of Inner Mongolia was 203 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.7%; The output of Shaanxi Province is 113 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.
It is expected that in 2024, the policy side will change from increasing production and guaranteeing supply to stabilizing production and guaranteeing supply, and the output growth rate may be narrowed.
Chen Tianyu predicts that in 2024, the output of raw coal will be 4.76 billion tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.0%; the supply of thermal coal will be 3.861 billion tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.3%; The supply of coking coal is 489 million tons. Year-on-year-0.
< IMG SRC = "https://img7.ccement.com/richtext/img/ltvsj7s9m5l1712028659266.3." The data of key monitoring coal enterprises in the first ten days of February showed that
the output reached 55.07 million tons, an increase of + 6.5% compared with the first ten days of February, a decrease of -6% compared with the same period last year. Shanxi decreased by 20.6%, Inner Mongolia increased by 5.4%, and Shaanxi increased by 0.8%;
Sales volume reached 57.09 million tons, an increase of + 7.9% compared with the first ten days of February, a decrease of-0. Shanxi decreased by 8.3%, Inner Mongolia increased by 9.9%, and Shaanxi decreased by 4.7%;
Railway traffic volume reached 36.23 million tons, an increase of 10.2% compared with the first ten days of February, an increase of 2.2% compared with the same period last year. Shanxi decreased by 6.2%, Inner Mongolia increased by 5.8%, and Shaanxi increased by 5.
Coal imports continued to be high in 2024, and the growth rate narrowed
significantly. From 2016 to 2023, China imported 2.31 billion tons of coal from Indonesia, Australia, Russia and Mongolia, accounting for more than 92% of China's total coal imports, including 48.07% from Indonesia, 18.12% from Australia, 14.91% from Russia and 11.14% from Mongolia. The proportion of coal imported through other countries was only 474 million tons in
2023, with a year-on-year increase of + 62.0%, of which 372 million tons were imported in 2023, and 74.515 million tons were imported in January-February
2024.
Chen Tianyu predicted that coal imports in 2024 would be 485 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 2.2%, of which 377 million tons would be power coal imports, a year-on-year increase of + 1.
From the beginning of 2024, the coal demand side is weak.
The data show that the thermal power generation in early February is + 7%, the average daily consumption of eight coastal provinces in February is-16.8%, and the methanol capacity utilization rate in early March is 86% and + 11%. In early March, Chen Tianyu, https://price.ccement.com/Price_list-1-s0-e0-p0-c0-k100059-b0.
of Cement < a href = ", believed that the pressure on the demand side of power coal appeared in 2024, and the demand growth slowed down.".
In 2023, thermal power generation still accounted for about 70%, and hydropower 12.Non-fossil energy power generation accounts for 30%; in 2023, the newly installed capacity of power generation equipment will be 369.07 million kilowatts, with thermal power accounting for 18%, hydropower 3%, wind power 21%, and solar energy 59%; in 2023, the installed capacity of power generation will be 2919.65 million kilowatts, with thermal power accounting for 48%, hydropower 14%, wind power 15%, and solar energy 21%.
However, according to the 14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System, the proportion of non-fossil energy generation will reach 39% by 2025, the proportion of thermal power generation will be squeezed to 61%, the proportion of hydropower in 2023 will be-4.9%, and the overall performance of hydropower in January-February 2024 will be slightly better than that in the same period. Thermal coal consumption in 2024 is expected to be 4.142 billion tons, + 2.2%
year-on-year < IMG SRC = "https://img7.ccement.com/richtext/img/s1layuhicxk1712028702387.".
