In 2023, the contradiction between supply and demand in the cement industry intensified, and the competition among enterprises was fierce. The annual output of the cement industry decreased by 5%, the revenue decreased by 21.5%, and the total profit was only 30 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of more than 53%. Entering 2024, it is very important to timely grasp the macroeconomic trend of China in 2024 and predict the development situation of cement. In the government work report delivered at the Second Session of the
14th National People's Congress, it was mentioned that the main targets were to increase GDP by about 5% and to increase the amount of special bonds to 3.9 trillion yuan plus 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. What kind of economic signals have been released? How will infrastructure and real estate develop? What should the cement industry do at present? Recently, Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, gave his views when communicating with China Cement Network.
Zhang Liqun said that the target of about 5% growth has great strength. It is different from last year, before the base is low, it is relatively easy to achieve recovery growth, this year's 5% growth should be achieved on the basis of last year's 5.2%, the base has increased significantly, to achieve this goal to make greater efforts. Moreover, he believes that if China's economic work is done well this year, China's economic growth will have a lot of room to rise, and the GDP growth rate can exceed 5%.
"3.9 trillion yuan of local government special debt, an increase of 100 billion yuan over last year's budget.". The investment capital in the budget is 700 billion yuan, which is also an increase over last year. In addition, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued for several consecutive years starting this year. Judging from these arrangements, the moderate strengthening of fiscal policy has been quite positive. Zhang Liqun said that from the perspective of the promotion of fiscal policy, it is expected that the economic recovery will be more obvious this year.
Among them, Zhang Liqun stressed that the benefits for the cement industry are mainly reflected in two aspects:
First, infrastructure construction. Government investment will be increased this year, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to rebound from last year, which will bring new orders to the cement industry. In particular, the arrangement of financial funds is expected to alleviate the problem of insufficient funds for local government projects to a certain extent.
As for the online rumor that "12 provinces with higher debt will not be allowed to start new projects in 2024", which was not published on the official website, this rumor is not enough to predict the growth trend of capital construction this year, and the financial funds are moderately inclined to areas with better project preparation and construction conditions. It can further improve the effect of government capital investment funds and further accelerate the progress of capital construction.
The second aspect is real estate. Driven by government investment, many enterprises will increase their orders. With the increase of enterprise orders, active production and the improvement of employment situation, the ability of residents to buy houses will be improved. The demand for rigid improved housing accumulated over a long period of time may be gradually released. This will lead to a rebound in housing prices in big cities. Accordingly, it can be considered that there may be a conversion point in the real estate market this year, and if it occurs, the real estate development and construction activities will soon recover.
Asked about the trend of cement demand this year and in the next few years, Zhang Liqun said that from the perspective of the cement industry market, this year's market demand is expected to be generally stable. China's economy is still at the bottom of the adjustment stage, but the energy of new growth is accumulating, and the speed is accelerating. In the future, with the accelerated expansion of new quality productivity, high-quality development will enter a stage of overall acceleration, and the demand for cement and building materials will expand rapidly. Of course, the requirements for the quality of cement and green energy saving will continue to improve.
At present, the most important thing for the cement industry is to control production capacity to prevent low-cost competition. Improve the ability of green, clean and high quality development of cement industry. Zhang Liqun pointed out that facing the future, China's economy can not stay at this level for a long time, is in the start-up period of new development, the cement industry needs to be confident and fully prepared.
On March 28-29, China Cement Network will hold the " 13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony " in Hangzhou, during which awards will be given to top 100 cement and supplier enterprises, and experts and scholars will be invited. China Railway and other construction units jointly discuss the new development trend of the cement industry in the future, and work together to create the future! At the meeting, Zhang Liqun will give a wonderful speech around the macroeconomic trend. Sign up quickly!
