Peak-staggering production was originally a measure to limit production in order to avoid the superimposed emission of pollutants during the winter heating period, but it has to be admitted that it did play a certain role in alleviating overcapacity and stabilizing industry benefits in a specific period, so that it gradually evolved into a normal peak-staggering. But it is too idealistic to regard it as the only means to solve the current crisis in the cement industry.
1. Staggered production is never intended to "save" the cement industry. At the beginning, it was proposed that peak staggering production was to solve the problem of frequent polluted weather, which was essentially an environmental protection policy. During the Two sessions
in 2014, 18 CPPCC members jointly submitted the Proposal on Promoting the Construction of a Coordination Mechanism for Cement and Heating Staggered Peak Production in Four Northern Provinces and One Region (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and Hebei). It is suggested that the production of cement kiln clinker burning process should be stopped during the heating period in autumn and winter, and the peak load should be staggered with the heating boiler to prevent the superposition of pollutant emissions. In December
2014, the cement industry in the three northeastern provinces announced the implementation of peak staggering production, and 103 cement clinker production lines with a total capacity of 40 million tons were shut down. Earlier, the whole region of Xinjiang and the Guanzhong region of Shaanxi began to implement peak staggering production of cement enterprises.
Since then, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and other four provinces and two cities have also actively responded to the initiative to join the pilot peak staggering production, and the Xinjiang Autonomous Region Economic and Credit Commission and the Environmental Protection Bureau have jointly issued documents on peak staggering production. In November
2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Environmental Protection jointly issued the Notice on the Comprehensive Trial Implementation of Winter Cement Peak-Staggered Production in Northern Heating Areas, which decided to comprehensively try out cement peak-staggered production in northern areas during the heating period from 2015 to 2016.
In view of the important role of peak-staggering production in improving the profitability of the industry and alleviating the pressure of overcapacity, the policy has been supported and welcomed by many cement enterprises, and peak-staggering production has begun to be popularized in the vast majority of cement producing areas throughout the country, and peak-staggering production has entered a normal stage. Winter peak staggering, summer peak staggering, heavy pollution weather peak staggering.. Be heard all the time. To some extent
, off-peak production has deviated from its original intention.
2. Today's market demand is different from the past. As investment in fixed assets, especially real estate investment, continues to decline, domestic demand for cement has accelerated. In the first half of
2024, the sales boom of the real estate industry was low, land transactions and new construction continued a negative growth trend, and real estate investment continued to decline. At the same time, due to the slow issuance of new special bonds and the risk control of local debt, the start-up rate of infrastructure projects is not as good as expected, and the pulling effect on investment is weak. Under the background of tightening
demand, the market competition is particularly fierce , the "tacit understanding" of cement enterprises to implement peak staggering production is no longer, the situation of "face and heart discord" occurs from time to time, and "share protection" and "share grabbing" have become the top priority for some enterprises to survive. Cement prices across the country are generally running at a low level near the cost line, and the profits of the cement industry are also extremely compressed. In the case of extremely low prices, cement enterprises need to maintain profits through "volume".
At the same time , as the national market demand continues to decline, the "magic" of off-peak production is also disappearing. Since the implementation
of off-peak production, the scope has been expanding, from the northeast to the north, and then to the whole country; the time has been extending, from winter to summer, and now almost every month off-peak production. The intensity of peak staggering production is increasing, but the effect is getting worse and worse.
3. The problem of overcapacity cannot be fundamentally solved. Only "wrong" output, not "wrong" production capacity, the hope of healthy development of the industry in the hope of off-peak production, is tantamount to drinking poison to quench thirst .
Under the background of the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand of cement, it is the right way to solve the serious overcapacity, make the total capacity of the cement industry adapt to the environmental carrying capacity, market demand and resource security, coordinate the spatial layout with regional economic development, and achieve a reasonable level of capacity utilization.
Long-term implementation of the policy of limiting and reducing production may lead to distortion of market signals, hinder the normal operation of the market mechanism, and reduce the efficiency of resource allocation.
Secondly, the policy of off-peak production may lead to "equalitarianism", which weakens the market competitiveness of superior production capacity and provides a living space for inefficient production capacity. To a certain extent, this practice protects backward production capacity, misses the "window" period to resolve overcapacity, and aggravates the structural problems of the industry.
Especially, in the years when the industry enjoyed the high profit period brought by peak staggering production, the new cement production capacity increased sharply, and a large number of new production lines "sprang up", which made the cement industry with excess capacity "worse" .
4. The cost of kiln shutdown is getting higher and higher. The longer the kiln is shut down, the higher the fixed amortization cost of the enterprise will be, and the long-term production control, shutdown and intermittent shutdown will also bring about problems such as safe operation of equipment, management and operation costs, staff arrangement and so on.
It has been suggested that market competition can not solve any problems, and there is no way to stagger peak production-the main argument is that market competition can not effectively eliminate backward production capacity, cement enterprises, regardless of size, made a lot of money a few years ago, and no one can survive.
Now it seems not necessarily, due to investment decisions and other factors, the cash flow of some cement enterprises is not optimistic, through this year, may not be able to survive next year.
"Flood is not blocked by dredging", peak staggering production has helped the cement industry to create brilliance, but also delayed the window period of the industry to capacity, so that the problem of overcapacity is becoming more and more serious. At present, all kinds of disadvantages accumulated in the industry, in the final analysis, are overcapacity, it is imperative to go to capacity, and the cement industry is also the time for strong men to break their wrists.
