2024, due to the impact of local government debt, the capital arrival rate of some regional infrastructure projects was low, the investment scale was facing contraction pressure, and the actual landing volume was less than expected. In terms of real estate, the willingness of terminal consumption is low, the sales volume of commercial housing is further reduced, the industry inventory generally maintains a high level, and the capital repayment of real estate enterprises has not improved significantly. In this context, the real estate industry is still dominated by the digestion of stock projects, and the momentum of investment growth is weak.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) in January-March 2024 was 6.5%, down 2.3 percentage points from the same period in 2023. Meanwhile, investment in real estate development in China fell by 9.5% year-on-year, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the same period in 2023.
Figure 1: The decline of real estate investment is widening, and the growth rate of infrastructure is falling year-on-year (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
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