this year, the demand of domestic cement industry has continued to decline, and the contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent, resulting in fierce market competition and sustained price decline. How long will the industry trend of "double reduction of volume and price" last? Under the situation of sustained low demand, where is the way out for cement enterprises?
Recently, Wang Jianchao, vice chairman of Conch Cement , said that the future cement market will go down step by step, and the current cement industry has entered the downward channel. Wang Jianchao, vice chairman
of Conch Cement,
believes that this trend can be clearly seen from the characteristics of several aspects:
from the perspective of infrastructure investment, on the one hand, future infrastructure investment will gradually transform to new infrastructure, and the dependence on cement will gradually decrease; On the other hand, in recent years, as the main source of local finance, land transfer income has been declining continuously in recent years, local debt has been rising year by year, and the pressure of debt repayment has increased, which also increases the risk of default. The financial strength of many local governments has been difficult to support large-scale local infrastructure construction. Therefore, infrastructure is no longer the same as in the past, to achieve sustained and vigorous pull of cement;
from the perspective of real estate investment, Wang Jianchao believes that the current stock of housing has been "seriously excessive". In the future, with the efforts and accumulation of several generations, most young people will no longer worry about the house, so real estate investment is no longer possible to return to the trend of high investment and high growth, and it is difficult to provide support for the growth of cement demand.
As two of the three carriages of cement consumption, the declining trend of traditional infrastructure and real estate investment will also push the cement industry into a downward period.
In the market economy environment, it is obvious that enterprises should not only pursue sales, but also pay attention to price in the market competition. With the increasingly fierce market competition, which of the two viewpoints of "price, cost and profit" and "quantity, cost and profit" can bring greater benefits to enterprises?
Wang Jianchao believes that there is no absolute right or wrong in these two views. At present, the concentration of China's cement industry is still relatively low, but the degree of concentration in each region is different. The purpose of an enterprise is to make profits. In any case , the most important thing for an enterprise is to establish its own cost advantage in the market competition, while pursuing the balance between sales and price, and maximizing benefits. In order to maximize the benefits, sometimes they even prefer to give up a certain share.
At present, as demand continues to decline, the drawbacks of overcapacity in the cement industry are increasingly exposed, so where is the way out?
In this regard, Wang Jianchao believes that the relationship between supply and demand is the most important factor to improve the efficiency of enterprises, but in the context of such a serious overcapacity, the total amount of energy consumption or carbon emissions should be controlled. As a rigid indicator, it is a good way to control cement production capacity, but he personally believes that the total carbon emission control is the best choice to cater to the national policy and achieve capacity removal.
At present, many enterprises in the industry are trying to reduce carbon, for example, to achieve technical carbon reduction through technological transformation of production lines, to achieve carbon reduction through market-oriented means such as carbon trading, and to achieve carbon neutralization through photovoltaic and new energy. However, all attempts are ultimately aimed at achieving green and high-quality development of the industry while resolving the problem of overcapacity.
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