In recent years, domestic cement demand has continued to decline. Since the beginning of 2023, domestic cement prices have been under great downward pressure, and price wars have broken out in many places. Even in popular areas such as East China, cement prices have fallen to a historical low. In view of the situation of the real estate industry, the industry is not optimistic about the future demand for cement, and is full of confusion about the market trend.
Like the overall price trend of domestic cement, the Guangdong market has experienced a rapid downward trend after a short upward trend at the beginning of this year. Recently, China Cement Network and Li Li , executive vice president of Guangdong Cement Industry Association, had a detailed exchange on the current situation of the cement market and how to deal with it in the future. Li Li
, executive vice president of
Guangdong Cement Industry Association, said that this year's situation is more severe
than last year's. "This year's market situation of Guangdong cement industry is more severe than last year's." President Li Li said.
It is understood that the demand for cement in Guangdong's real estate industry exceeds 50 million tons, accounting for more than 40% of the total demand for cement in Guangdong. In recent years, the development trend of the real estate industry has declined and the market demand has shrunk, which has a great impact on the cement market in Guangdong.
Guangdong Statistical Bureau announced on July 18 the operation of the real estate market in the first half of this year, showing that in the first half of this year, the investment in real estate development in Guangdong was 0.70 trillion yuan, down 7.4% from the same period last year. Among them, investment in commercial housing dropped by 5.9%. Regionally, the investment in real estate development in the core area of the Pearl River Delta decreased by 6.6%, and that in the eastern, western and northern regions of Guangdong decreased by 11.7%. In the first half of the year, the sales area of commercial housing in Guangdong dropped by 0.2%.
In the context of declining real estate demand, the industry will pay more attention to the field of large infrastructure, but Li Li believes that the promotion of large infrastructure is difficult to change the downward trend of the cement industry.
On the one hand, the pull of infrastructure on cement is limited, and there are obvious regional restrictions; on the other hand, large infrastructure is also facing financial difficulties, if the problem of funds can not be effectively solved, the implementation of large infrastructure is also difficult. In addition, large infrastructure overdraws future cement demand to a certain extent, and in the long run, it can not change the industry dilemma.
Li Li also said that from a worldwide perspective, the cyclical development of the cement industry determines that after experiencing the peak demand, it will inevitably fall back, which is an objective law and difficult to change artificially. In this context, in the future, the cement industry must intensify supply-side reform and eliminate some backward production capacity in order to achieve stable development.
Talking about the future situation of Guangdong cement market, Li Li believes that the real estate industry is still the key, but from the current economic situation, real estate is difficult to recover, later in the pull of infrastructure, the cement market may appear a certain degree of recovery, but the overall pressure is still greater. Last year, Guangdong cement industry stopped kilns for 60 days, and this year may be more than that.
"Double control of energy consumption" promotes the green and low-carbon development
of the industry. Under the background of serious overcapacity, how does the cement industry cope with it? Li Li believes that in the short run, "double control of energy consumption" is an effective way for the cement industry to meet market challenges. It can not only resolve overcapacity to a certain extent, but also promote the green and low-carbon development of the industry. In terms of
specific operation, Li Li suggested that the total energy consumption should be allocated according to the design capacity of cement enterprises, and additional restrictive measures should be added to enterprises that have not completed energy-saving transformation within the prescribed time and have high energy consumption level, or even shut down production lines through policies, so as to create space for the development of advanced enterprises. In the
long run, Li Li believes that the cyclical development of the cement industry determines that market competition is inevitable. In the process of market competition, the domestic cement industry will experience a wave of elimination and merger and reorganization, and eventually form a basic pattern of regional cement market controlled by several large cement enterprises.
Taking Japan as an example, in the last century, the demand for cement in Japan once reached about 90 million tons, but with the change of economic situation, the demand for cement declined rapidly, and eventually "cut in half", forming a basic pattern of several cement enterprises controlling the market. Li Li believes that the domestic cement market will eventually move towards this model.
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