inventory is full, the peak will be staggered; if the demand is insufficient, the peak will be staggered; if the price is low, the peak will be staggered. In recent years, peak staggering seems to be the "life-saving straw" of the cement industry.
However, the number of days of off-peak kiln shutdown is increasing rapidly year by year, but the effect of off-peak production is weakening year by year. Especially this year, with the further sharpening of the contradiction between supply and demand, the impact of off-peak kiln shutdown on the cement market has been greatly weakened. What do people in the cement industry think about off-peak production? China Cement Network interviewed Li Rongshan, Secretary-General of Suzhou Cement Association.
Li Rongshan introduced that cement peak staggering production originated from Northeast China in 2014. At that time, in winter, people in Northeast China needed a lot of coal for heating, and the supply of coal was very tight for a while. Therefore, in line with the principle of production giving way to life, cement plants began to stagger peak production.
Li Rongshan pointed out that the off-peak production of cement plants can not only solve the problem of people using coal for heating, but also has the following five advantages:
First, it can help alleviate the problem of excess capacity in the cement industry and avoid the vicious competition in the industry caused by blind production, thus improving the utilization value of resources.
2. A large amount of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) will be produced in the process of cement production, so reducing clinker production is an important means to reduce carbon emissions, which is in line with the national carbon emission reduction policy.
3. From the perspective of environmental protection, off-peak production helps to reduce air pollution, especially in winter and rainy season, when the cement market demand is usually low, and the shutdown of factories can reduce the emission of smoke and dust pollution caused by coal combustion.
Fourth, promote technological innovation. Peak-shifting production is generally carried out in non-peak season, which provides a time window for technological transformation of enterprises and helps to promote the progress of manufacturing technology.
5. Staggered production helps to balance supply and demand and stabilize cement prices , which is beneficial to both consumers and enterprises.
Generally speaking, cement peak-shifting production is a win-win policy, which is not only conducive to environmental protection, but also conducive to the healthy development of the industry and the protection of consumers'rights and interests. This mature experience has been gradually extended to North China, South China and even the whole country since 2014. After years of practice, in the period when cement production capacity has not been greatly reduced, cement peak staggering production has become an important measure of normalization.
In order to make time and space for reducing production capacity, the state formulated the Guiding Catalogue for Structural Adjustment of Cement and Glass Industry in 2019, which clearly eliminated the backward production capacity of cement. In 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the revised Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in Cement Industry. The actual situation is: 1. Cement hollow kilns, mechanical shaft kilns, wet kilns, Lipol kilns and cement mills with a diameter of less than 3 meters (excluding) have all been eliminated. 2. The implementation method of capacity replacement has stopped the increment of cement capacity to a certain extent. 3. Cement capacity replacement is mostly production lines with a daily output of less than 2500 tons of clinker (including). To some extent, these production lines are difficult to reach the benchmark production line of energy consumption, and will be on the verge of being eliminated in the future. Instead, the replacement of these production capacity will be reactivated, which will have a negative impact on the reduction of cement production capacity. In addition, it must be noted that although the new clinker production line is reduced and replaced according to the proportion stipulated by the policy, the actual capacity is often much larger than the approved design capacity, generally about 1.2 times the design capacity. At the same time, according to the implementation measures of replacement, two in one in the region can be replaced in equal proportion. Therefore, in some places, capacity replacement has not been reduced, but increased.
Li Rongshan pointed out that there are usually two ways to reduce production capacity. First, market mechanism. Quality, environmental protection, energy consumption, safety, performance, survival of the fittest. 2. Administrative means. With industrial planning, industrial reorganization and asset optimization, enterprises are closed, suspended, merged and transferred. The former reduces production capacity, takes a long time, and the cost of government investment is small. The latter, reducing production capacity, has quick results and high cost of government investment, but involves many policy issues.
In addition to the above two ways, an effective way to restrict cement production capacity at present and in the future is the combination of administration and market, that is, carbon emissions trading. In 2020, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment formulated the management measures for carbon emissions trading (for trial implementation). The Measures specify that the cement industry is an industry covered by the national carbon emission trading market. The Measures stipulate that the Ministry of Ecology and Environment shall, in accordance with the requirements of national greenhouse gas emission control, formulate a plan for determining and allocating the total amount of carbon emission quotas in combination with factors such as economic growth, industrial structure, energy structure optimization and coordinated control of air pollutant emissions. This major measure actually determines the total amount of cement production capacity, and cement enterprises are pushed to the carbon emissions trading market after they finally get the free allocation quota. If enterprises want to expand production capacity, they can only reduce energy consumption, reduce CO2 emissions, or trade in the trading market for a fee. Enterprises with large energy consumption and increased CO2 emissions can only reduce production capacity or even withdraw from the market. On January 5 this year, the State Council formulated the Provisional Regulations on the Management of Carbon Emission Trading according to the legislative plan. The Regulations have a clearer definition of the legal attributes of carbon emission rights, which is not only conducive to the expansion of the national carbon emission trading market, but also conducive to the extension of financial business in the green and low-carbon field.
To sum up, first, cement peak staggering production only reduces the output, not the production capacity. Under the background of serious overcapacity of cement, the implementation of peak staggering production has the advantages of alleviating overcapacity, balancing the contradiction between supply and demand, and reducing air pollution, which will become an effective measure of normalization at this stage.
Second, the replacement of production capacity can reduce production capacity and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial technology, and the replacement of production capacity needs to be further revised, refined and improved.
Third, to solve the serious overcapacity of cement production, we can adopt market and administrative channels, but carbon emission trading is the most effective means to control cement production capacity at a lower cost, and it is also an international practice.
Fourth, with the strict implementation of the double carbon target, carbon emission quotas are becoming more and more tight, so carbon emission quotas will become scarce resources, and carbon prices will only become higher and higher.
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