“水泥冷暖大佬谈”|马维平:水泥产能尚未达峰 供需矛盾还会加剧

2023-08-17 21:18:39

马维平认为,当前水泥行业同2015年一样,都遭遇了经济的转型期,面对房地产、基建和整体经济态势的下滑,水泥需求萎缩,供需矛盾加剧,导致行业态势步入低谷,但是与2015年相比,当前行业还面临两大方面的不同。

近年来,国内水泥需求持续下滑,2023年初至今,国内水泥价格下行压力极大,多地爆发价格战,即便是华东等热门地区,水泥价格也跌至历史低谷。鉴于房地产行业态势,业内对水泥未来需求并不乐观,对市场态势走向充满迷茫。

就此,近日,中国水泥网与尧柏水泥集团原董事长、总裁马维平博士就水泥行业如何应对当前市场变化,未来行业将面临怎样的挑战等问题展开了详细交流。

马维平认为,当前水泥行业同2015年一样,都遭遇了经济的转型期,面对房地产、基建和整体经济态势的下滑,水泥需求萎缩,供需矛盾加剧,导致行业态势步入低谷,但是与2015年相比,当前行业还面临两大方面的不同。

供需矛盾方面,当前水泥行业实际产能规模比2015年有了明显的提升,而且由于还有大量生产线尚未投产,国内水泥产能规模并未达到历史最高峰。一边是产能继续增长,另一边是需求已经步入下行周期,两者共同影响下,当前供需矛盾更加尖锐,产能过剩的程度比2015年要严重,行业要走出困境比当年更难。

市场前景方面,2015年国内房地产和基建领域依旧存在较大的发展空间,为后续的水泥需求恢复提供了强力的支撑,但是当前房地产市场已经饱和,基建方面经过近些年的大规模建设,空间越来越小,水泥行业未来需求缺乏支撑。马维平甚至判断,今年可能是中国水泥产量维持在20亿吨以上的最后一年。

鉴于当前的行业态势和未来水泥需求走势,马维平认为行业应该在供给、需求以及未来态势等问题方面形成共识。

短时间来看,错峰生产等供给侧措施依然是当前市场态势下,行业自救的一种暂时性手段,但并非长久之计。

错峰生产从实行以来,范围上不断扩大,从东北到北方,再发展到全国;时间上不断延长,从冬季到夏季,再到如今几乎每月都错峰生产。但随着供需矛盾的加剧,错峰生产力度越来越大,发挥的效果却越来越差。

行业应该认识到,错峰生产等供给侧措施并不能从根本上解决供需矛盾,更不能将“宝”押在错峰生产上,应该认清行业现实,为长期发展寻找到一条出路。

而长期来看,国内水泥需求将出现大幅度的下滑,去产能刻不容缓。

马维平表示,当前国内水泥人均消费量仍然在1.4吨左右,远远高于欧美发达国家人均400公斤的人均消费量,未来国内人均水泥消费量可能降至700公斤左右。

同时,鉴于欧美、日本等发达国家水泥需求进入下行通道后需求下滑速度,综合考虑我国经济建设的需要和消费习惯等因素,未来8-10年国内水泥需求可能降至10亿吨左右。

在此背景下,加速去产能,推动行业绿色高质量发展势在必行。对此,马维平给出几点建议:

1、取消产能置换。过去几年,产能置换并未真正的化解行业产能过剩问题,甚至让大量僵尸产能,落后产能借助产能置换,变身先进产能。加之新建大型生产线超产能力大,导致行业产能过剩问题日益严峻。

2、停止以扩产为目的的技术改造。近年来,国内大量水泥企业大力推进提产改造。一条5000t/d生产线,改造后实际产能可能达到7000-8000t/d,加剧了产能过剩问题。建议利用设定能耗配额、碳配额等方式,限制企业开展以扩产为目的的技术改造。

3、淘汰落后产能。利用能耗指标、环保指标以及碳排放强度等约束性条件,迫使不符合要求的落后产能退出市场,进而化解产能过剩,并实现水泥行业整体发展水平的提升。

4、加速推动行业高质量发展。行业需要在绿色矿山、资源利用、污染物减排、碳减排以及智能化建设等等相关领域加大推进力度。

马维平感叹道,当前水泥产能35亿吨左右,未来10年大概率降至10亿吨左右,如果不能在化解产能过剩方面取得实质性成效,届时产能利用率不到30%。化解产能过剩已经迫在眉睫,再等下去行业会越来越困难,市场态势会越来越恶劣。

关于马维平博士:

马维平博士,1982年2月毕业于上海同济大学,美国宾夕法尼亚州立大学材料学博士。在建材行业从业41年。历任豪瑞集团美国区高级工艺工程师、产品开发部经理,拉法基集团中国区副总裁,南方水泥集团高级顾问,意大利水泥集团中国区总裁、首席代表,尧柏水泥集团董事长、总裁,西部水泥总裁,中国水泥协会副会长等职务。

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