水泥冷暖大佬谈丨诸葛文达:水泥行业由“春秋”入“战国”

2023-09-06 09:18:44

诸葛文达认为,水泥作为周期性行业,发展自有其规律。整体来说,当前水泥行业正由“春秋时期”转入“战国时期”。过去几年,行业通过“合纵连横”构建了相对稳定的竞合关系,取得了良好的效益,如今随着市场需求的下滑,行业将在竞争中,开启一轮“兼并战争”。

2023年初至今,国内水泥价格下行压力极大,多地爆发价格战,即便是华东等热门地区,水泥价格也跌至历史低谷。鉴于房地产行业态势,业内对水泥未来需求并不乐观,对市场态势走向充满迷茫。

就此,近日,中国水泥网与湖北世纪新峰雷山水泥董事长诸葛文达就水泥行业当前态势,如何去产能以及中小企业生存策略等问题展开详细交流。

湖北世纪新峰雷山水泥董事长诸葛文达

诸葛文达认为,水泥作为周期性行业,发展自有其规律。整体来说,当前水泥行业正由“春秋时期”转入“战国时期”。过去几年,行业通过“合纵连横”构建了相对稳定的竞合关系,取得了良好的效益,如今随着市场需求的下滑,行业将在竞争中,开启一轮“兼并战争”。

诸葛文达也指出,行业大势,合久必分,分久必合,经历过竞争和并购重组之后,水泥行业会构建起全新的行业秩序,市场终归走向一统。

水泥行业如何去产能?

归根到底,严峻的供需矛盾是导致当前市场态势下行的关键。

诸葛文达认为,房地产一直是支撑国内水泥需求的核心因素,如今国内城市房屋供应趋近饱和,加之人口下降,房地产态势难复当年勇,将为水泥需求下滑带来严重冲击;基建方面,近年来,国内高铁、高速等基础设施建设快速发展,加上人口流动减少,基建投资潜力正在降低。

诸葛文达预判,未来十年内水泥需求将低于10亿吨。

有鉴于此,水泥行业去产能势在必行。就此,诸葛文达表示,业内目前提出的立即停止产能置换,停止以提产为目的的技术改造都是可行之策。不过,这些仅仅是解决增量问题,并不能化解产能过剩。

为此,诸葛文达认为,并购重组,对区域内产能资源重新配置是化解产能过剩关键。

“目前有一些说法,通过市场竞争淘汰部分产能来化解产能过剩,但是这种方式很难实现”,诸葛文达介绍,未来随着市场需求的快速下滑,5-10年后,国内水泥需求量将降至10亿吨,按照现在的产能,届时产能利用率30%不到。

有些企业希望通过市场竞争把对手挤掉,然后实现产能的平衡,从逻辑上讲是根本行不通的。目前,5000吨以上的产能比重非常大,占全行业的70%以上,大概25亿吨左右水泥产能,但5-10年之后整体需求只有10亿吨,产能依然是严重过剩。

另外,2500-3000吨的生产线,也有存在的价值。不少具备地理优势、品牌优势、交通优势。随着市场整体需求量的下滑,一些地方需求本来就不大,5000吨生产线产能大、运距长,小线可能更靠近市场,更符合地区发展需要,想通过市场竞争方式淘汰,非常困难。

因此,诸葛文达认为,一方面要压缩“先进产能”,大企业按比例缩减产能;另一方面,推动大企业对小企业的并购重组,然后根据区域优势有所取舍,位置好的,综合优势明显的留下,劣势的淘汰,重新划分区域市场格局,重新配置产能资源,这样才能真正的去产能。

诸葛文达表示,“战国时期”竞争是不可避免的,但同样也是并购重组的好时机。预计在市场下行态势下,市场竞争还会延续。经过一轮厮杀之后,有利于大企业以合理的价格收购水泥资产,但如果想通过价格战直接把对手打成“破铜烂铁”然后再去收购,这是不现实的。

不过,在国内往往存在一种情况,买涨不买跌。市场好的时候拼命的并购扩张,市场并不好的时候反而不敢扩张了,而事实上,恰恰行业低谷的时候是收购的良机。大企业是面向未来发展的,需要立足于未来,看得长远。

中小水泥企业如何生存?

诸葛文达表示,一方面错峰生产效果越来越差,执行难度越来越大,在此背景下,中小企业应该跟随大企业的市场节奏,灵活应对,有退有进;另一方面,更重要的是小企业需要做好自己,树立自身竞争优势。

从企业发展的角度而言,低碳、低能耗是水泥行业发展的必然趋势,也是国家政策的主导方向,企业需要做的就是尽量去迎合这样的发展方式,提前布局做好准备,这也是中小企业立足未来发展的关键。

以世纪新峰水泥为例,早在几年前,就开始向现代农业转型,如今已经建立起全世界单体规模最大的楼房养猪场。近年来,世纪新峰水泥更是结合水泥生产特点,围绕现代农业打造闭环产业链条,成果斐然,形成了自身独有的竞争力。

楼房养猪场

诸葛文达举例道,世纪新峰水泥120万头生猪养殖项目,每天消耗饲料1000吨,产生250-300吨粪便等废物。通过厌氧发酵生成沼气,用于回转窑补燃,可以替代部分煤炭。养猪场污泥热值大约在3500-4000大卡,通过压滤机将水分降低到60%后,再通过窑尾余热烘干,可以最大限度发挥污泥热值,也能节约相当一部分能源。

另外,世纪新峰水泥正在建设大型预制菜产业园项目,配套建设1000吨的大米生产线,预计每天产生谷壳400吨,加工成颗粒燃料,作为水泥生产燃料可以提到250吨优质煤炭。

诸葛文达总结道,经过上述的工序之后,仅仅是能耗方面就可以使水泥生产燃料替代率达到50%,未来随着产业链条的完善和规模的扩大,燃料替代率可能达到65%以上,大幅度降低能耗、碳排放和水泥生产成本。

碳排放降低之后,也可以享受到更多的奖励政策,有利于企业发展。当整个产业链条建立起来以后,企业的抗风险能力会进一步提高,世纪新峰水泥厂最终将彻底转变为现代农业配套的环保工厂。

诸葛文达:“1000吨大米生产线,即便大米不赚钱,赚400吨谷壳的钱就够了”。

建设中的预制菜产业园

水泥行业由“春秋”进入“战国”

“水泥市场发展自有规律,最终留下来的不一定是最具竞争力的企业,但一定是立足于未来,懂得取舍的企业”诸葛文达表示。

正如诸葛文达多年前预测的一样,当前行业态势是供需矛盾激化之后的必然结果。

前些年,市场相对较好,各家产能发挥率都比较高,大家都能形成相对稳定的竞合关系,但是随着产能的释放,需求的下滑,产能发挥率不断下降。部分企业具有一些先天优势,比如负债低、矿山成本低、物流发达、运输方便等等,必然利用竞争手段来消耗一段时间。

诸葛文达认为,对于优势企业来讲,这种做法是很好理解的,也符合企业自身实际。产能发挥率提高了,产量增加了,利润总额、净利润跌幅等指标跑赢大盘也是大概率的。

行业大势,合久必分,分久必合,当前水泥行业正由“春秋”转入“战国”,在市场需求下滑面前,竞争不可避免,而竞争的结果会让行业在兼并重组的过程中,再度走向“一统”,形成新的市场格局。

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Correlation

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终端需求疲态难改; 1.水泥冷暖大佬谈|何坤皇:去产能任重道远 促转型迫在眉睫 2.新疆:预计2023年水泥需求增长5%以上 3.两家水泥企业拟被列入全国工业领域电力需求侧管理典型案例! 4.多项补贴支持广西水泥外销,广东水泥市场再增压力

2023-10-10 13:56:36

虽然水泥需求总体是趋于大幅下降,但是水泥作为主要的基础建筑材料,在我们工业化、城镇化、现代化建设中发挥了重要作用,社会需要它,百姓需要它。我们应该对行业发展抱有正面的看法和态度,只要积极推进转型升级和创新发展,就一定可以更好融入和推动经济社会发展。

2023-10-09 16:01:14

多地调涨水泥价格; 1.水泥冷暖大佬谈|邱景河:国企打价格战损人不利己! 2.新建5000t/d熟料线!又一水泥企业在重庆投资40亿 3.一4960t/d水泥熟料搬迁项目已完成 4.两个月,又有21家混凝土企业破产

2023-09-22 13:45:31

通过打价格战来抢占市场会导致企业自身和行业利益受损,是“损人不利己”的行为,是不理性的竞争方式,水泥企业应该共同努力,促进水泥行业利润稳增长,为宏观经济的稳增长贡献一份力量。

2023-09-21 17:18:06

徐贵生表示,当前水泥行业的现状并不乐观,水泥价格跌势难止。尽管市场在不断萎缩,但稳预期、稳增长仍是下阶段经济发展的重中之重,引导房地产行业实现“软着陆”是当前各方的共识,在各路政策的加持下,水泥需求将会得到一定程度的恢复。

2023-09-19 17:30:26

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.