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What are the challenges and difficulties facing the cement industry? What are the main tasks in the future?
China's cement industry:
First, the trend of demand
decline is certain. I think the demand decline will go through two stages: the first stage is that by 2025, the probability of cement demand at 2 billion tons is high. This year's demand is basically the same as last year's, around 2.1 billion tons, and the next year or so will be stable as a whole. However, on the macroeconomic side, key factors such as the continuous bottoming of real estate and local debt have a great adverse impact on cement demand, which will lead to a further decline in cement demand. In the
second stage, I think the demand for cement will continue to decline after three to five years. Considering China's economic system, economic structure, national medium and long-term development strategy, construction quality, construction life, national consumption habits and other factors, I personally believe that China's annual per capita cement consumption level will be maintained at more than one ton for a long time, so the total demand for cement in 2030 will be about 1.5 billion tons.
Demand continues to decline, and the impact and challenges on the industry and enterprises are enormous. It can be imagined that the demand for cement will drop to 1.5 billion tons in seven years. If we do not make full mental preparations and take effective measures, the challenges faced by the cement industry will be enormous.
But don't be too pessimistic. We can do a lot in the next three-year window. Even if the demand for cement falls to 1.5 billion tons, we can deal with it through a series of measures.
Second, why did overcapacity intensify
in the first half of 2022 and 2023, when demand did not change much, the benefits declined sharply? There are two channels for
new production capacity: one is capacity replacement, which has caused the revival of some zombie production capacity, coupled with technological progress, new production capacity; the other is technological transformation, many cement enterprises have caused serious overproduction through transformation.
New capacity, coupled with the decline in cement demand in the future, overcapacity will continue to intensify, which has a great impact on the cement industry.
Third,
at present, people are generally concerned about the explicit costs such as labor costs, which will rise, but the more significant increase will be the implicit costs, such as the reduction of capacity utilization, which will lead to a substantial increase in depreciation and amortization. As well as the investment cost and operation cost of technological transformation such as ultra-low emission and carbon emission reduction. In addition, the withdrawal of some backward production lines will inevitably lead to a large number of asset losses, and the cost of joint reorganization of these enterprises is also very high. It is an established fact that the cement industry has entered a high-cost era.
Fourthly, the industry concentration is low
, and the proportion of the top 10 or even the top 50 in the domestic market is not high, which is also one of the key factors for the current grim situation of the industry.
Fifthly, the task of green low-carbon transformation is arduous
. On the one hand, it is ultra-low emission. If it is enforced according to the ultra-low emission technology path of nitrogen oxides, the cost of each production line transformation will be more than 60 million. Under the current industry situation, the task is very arduous.
On the other hand, carbon emission reduction, the cement industry is the most difficult in all industries, because the carbon emissions in the production process can not be solved for the time being, if we have to solve, it will be a profound revolution in the cement industry.
Sixth, the industry ecology is facing challenges
. In the past two years, people feel helpless and have no confidence. What is the expression of lack of confidence? The loss of confidence in the industry has led to chaos in the market order.
Generally speaking, the cement industry mainly faces these six challenges and difficulties. In the face of this situation, what is our task for the cement industry to achieve high-quality development? If we want to add more tasks, it is to improve industry concentration and speed up internationalization. As far as the domestic situation is concerned, the most urgent and important tasks are the first three tasks mentioned above.
The first is steady growth. Steady growth is the premise and foundation of high-quality development, how to transform and upgrade without benefits, and how to achieve sustainable and healthy development of the cement industry? To reduce production capacity, we must first solve the problem of new production capacity. I call on the top 50 companies in the cement industry to stop adding new capacity. Blind replacement of new projects is irresponsible for enterprises and industries, and the policy of capacity replacement should be stopped immediately.
In addition, some policies and measures should be found to speed up the withdrawal of backward and inefficient production capacity by market-oriented means and policies and regulations.
The third is transformation and upgrading. In particular, the green and low-carbon transformation can be summarized into the following types: one is the integrated development of cement, commercial mix and aggregate; the other is the digital and intelligent transformation; and the other is the international transformation.
Upgrading is mainly high-end, green and intelligent, and the whole industry should accelerate transformation and upgrading during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and in the future.
The fourth is to improve industry concentration. Through further joint reorganization to improve industry concentration, the top 50 enterprises should take action.
The fifth is to speed up internationalization. Internationalization is not the main task for most enterprises, but China's cement industry is still taking action. Four suggestions
on the high-quality development of the cement industry:
1.
We should firmly maintain a healthy industry ecology, and the whole industry should firmly establish the value concept of "industry interests are higher than enterprise interests, enterprise interests are in the interests of the industry" and "price, cost and profit". The whole industry should actively advocate and practice this concept.
Large enterprises should take the initiative to assume the responsibility of ecological construction in the industry, consciously stop new production capacity, consciously implement peak staggering production, resolutely oppose unfair market competition such as low-price dumping, and resolutely support provincial associations and enterprises to report unfair competition such as low-price dumping. Industry media, social media and associations at all levels should strengthen supervision over dumping at low prices. 2.3.4
. In the past so many years, we have come through the environment of overcapacity. We have a lot of successful experience and have learned some lessons. We will inherit the good experience and not make the mistakes we made before. There is still hope for the cement industry. If
everyone starts to act now, it is not out of reach for the cement industry to achieve a profit of 560 billion yuan this year. I believe that with the support of the government, the leadership of large enterprises, the joint efforts of all enterprises, the organization and coordination of associations, the short-term steady growth, the long-term transformation and upgrading, the supply-side structural reform and the goal of high-quality development will be achieved.
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