PPP利好水泥行业发展

2017-09-23 09:41:17

随着国家大力推广PPP模式,水泥的需求产量和价格行情都有望从中获益。

  PPP(Public-PrivatePartnership),又称PPP模式,即政府和社会资本合作,是公共基础设施中的一种项目运作模式。在该模式下,鼓励私营企业、民营资本与政府进行合作,参与公共基础设施的建设。作为基础设施建设投资的一部分,PPP项目的发展也在一定程度上拉动了部分水泥需求。

  作为中共十八大确定的落实“允许社会资本通过特许经营等方式参与城市基础设施投资和运营”改革举措的第一责任人,中国财政部从2013年底即已展开对PPP模式推广工作的全面部署。2014年开始,国务院、财政部和发改委等相关部门逐步出台政府和社会资本合作的各种文件,中国式的PPP进入规范发展阶段。2014年也因此被不少业内人士视为PPP模式在中国的发展元年。

一、PPP目前发展情况

  截止2017年7月,全国PPP项目总入库数达到13599个,总金额达到16.54万亿元,已覆盖全国31个省市自治区及新疆兵团。PPP项目按生命周期分为识别、准备、采购、执行和移交5个阶段,其中执行和移交两个阶段的项目被视为已落地项目,截止今年7月,PPP项目签约落地率为34.4%。

  图1:截止2017年7月PPP各阶段项目数(个)

  数据来源:财政部

  自2014年至今年6月份,财政部已陆续公布了三批次共700个PPP示范项目,累计投资达到1.7万亿元。其中,2014年第一批PPP示范项目有22个、总投资额714亿元;2015年第二批PPP示范项目有162个、总投资额4846亿元;2016年第三批PPP示范项目有516个、总投资额11623亿元。目前,第一批次和第二批次PPP项目已经全部进入落地阶段,第三批示范项目已经落地311个,落地率为60.6%。

  图2:三批次PPP项目个数及金额

  数据来源:财政部

  此外,由于部分项目不再采用PPP模式、部分项目因故终止、以及部分项目整合与消除重复等因素,一些PPP示范项目出现退库处理情况。

二、PPP项目行业分布

  分行业来看,截止2017年7月,在已入库的PPP项目中,交通运输和市政建设在入库项目数和投资金额上都远远高于其他行业,其中交通运输项目1781个,金额51248亿元,市政建设4754个,投资额达到44451亿元。从各行业的项目落地率来看,能源类项目和市政工程类项目的落地率最高,分别达到47.12%和39.92%。

  图3:PPP项目行业分布

  数据来源:财政部

  图4:PPP项目份行业落地率(%)

  数据来源:财政部

三、PPP项目地区分布

  分地区来看,截止今年7月份,无论是项目数量还是投资额度,贵州省均位居榜首,其中入库数量1850个,投资额1.7万亿元。其他PPP项目开展较快的地区也大多分布在中西部,比如云贵川、新疆等地。从各地区PPP项目的落地率上看,上海、北京、安徽、广东、浙江等东部地区落地速度较快。

  图5:PPP项目地区分布

  数据来源:财政部

  图6:PPP项目分地区落地率(%)

  数据来源:财政部

四、推广PPP项目利好水泥行业

  水泥行业是典型的投资拉动型行业,近几年来,虽然每年的固定资产投资额持续上升,但每亿元全社会固定资产投资所需的水泥产量逐年降低,2016年降至0.4万吨以下。若以2016年的水平计算,目前全部入库PPP项目16.54万亿的投资额将能够拉动6.55亿吨的水泥需求。

  以此计算,分行业来看,交通运输和市政工程分别能够带来2亿和1.76亿吨的水泥需求。分区域来看,西南地区PPP投资额预计将为当地带来1.7亿吨的水泥需求,华东、中南、西北、华北、东北也分别有1.3亿、1.2亿、1亿、0.8亿和0.3亿吨的预估水泥需求。

  图7:每亿元全社会固定资产投资水泥需求量(万吨)

  数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  基建投资是政府稳增长的主要引擎,近几年国家发改委批复了一系列铁路、公路、城市轨道交通等基础设施建设项目,而且从城镇化进程和居民消费升级来看,基础设施业在未来一段时间仍存在较大增长空间。

  而在基础设施建设投资中,PPP项目占比最大的市政工程和交通建设均需要大量的水泥,同样占比较大的西南云贵川等地也是水泥需求增长速度较快的地区,可见PPP项目和水泥的需求产量有一定的重合。今年部分水泥上市公司的股价已经在PPP概念的带动下一路上扬,同时,随着国家大力推广PPP模式,水泥的需求产量和价格行情都有望从中获益。

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Correlation

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