铁路等基建投资项目集中快速获批有深意

2014-11-12 09:18:22

业内专家认为,短短一个月内国家发改委主要批复的对象集中在铁路等基础设施建设方面,基础设施的建设不仅会缓解目前产能过剩的钢铁、水泥等产业的困境,还将在很大程度上对冲今年以来因房地产投资不振所带来的一些问题,近期批复的项目在明年年初将产生对经济发展的实质性作用。

  从国家统计局公布的前三季度投资数据看,前三季度,固定资产投资(不含农户)为357787亿元,同比名义增长16.1%(扣除价格因素实际增长15.3%),增速比上半年回落1.2个百分点。在第三季度GDP同比增长7.3%,创下近六年内新低的同时,与消费对经济增长贡献的上升形成反差,投资在一定程度上拖累了我国今年以来的经济增速。

  就在第三季度经济数据公布后不到一个月之内,国家发改委便密集批复了16条新建扩建铁路以及5个机场的建设项目,再加上此前国家发改委批复的3项特高压工程的开工,短短不到一个月的时间,国家发改委所批复的建设项目资金总额已经达到了7600亿元。

  业内专家认为,短短一个月内国家发改委主要批复的对象集中在铁路等基础设施建设方面,基础设施的建设不仅会缓解目前产能过剩的钢铁、水泥等产业的困境,还将在很大程度上对冲今年以来因房地产投资不振所带来的一些问题,近期批复的项目在明年年初将产生对经济发展的实质性作用。

  “在国家发改委所批复的大批项目中,铁路等基础设施建设的投资都将会对我国未来的经济发展起到支撑的作用,并且基础设施投资将会对稳增长、稳投资起到有力的推动作用。”中国国际经济交流中心咨询研究部副部长王军在接受记者采访时表示。

  王军称,从目前我国的经济发展情况看,在投资方面,房地产市场的几个重要指标都出现了明显的下滑,无论是价格还是销量,甚至是投资方面都呈现出下滑的趋势,房地产投资的疲弱不仅导致投资对经济运行的拉动作用减弱,同时也是影响到今年经济运行出现下行的一个重要因素。在房地场投资方面出现不振的情况下,加快基础设施投资需要保持较快的增长态势。

  民生证券研究院首席宏观研究员管清友[微博]认为,当前经济下行压力较大,政府明显开始强调稳增长,铁路基建均在加速,以此对冲房地产和私人部门投资的萎缩。房地产投资长周期走弱,产能过剩局面未得到根本缓解,制造业内生投资动力不足,经济企稳须依赖基建投资托举。

  另有业内人士指出,铁路基建领域目前尚不存在产能过剩,且有广泛的产业链拉动作用,预计基建领域投资的加速将在4个月至6个月后对经济产生拉动作用,明年第一季度末经济或可以感受到本轮需求端变化的力量。

  中信证券首席经济学家诸建芳认为,国家发改委此举是针对今年稳增长,但效果会在明年显现,因为今年上马的大量投资项目可能到明年才能正式开工。不过,第四季度基建投资增速仍会小幅上升至25%,一定程度上抵消房地产下滑的影响。

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