[专题]西藏水泥市场:需求表现尚可,行情取决于产能释放情况

2023-11-13 14:11:28

目前,西藏自治区仍处在基础设施建设的高峰期,水泥需求端支撑力度尚可,但考虑到前期产能增长,行业供应压力仍存,市场行情取决于实际产能释放情况……

一、需求情况分析:基建需求充分释放,地产端拖累有限

1.基建投资

2023年1-9月,西藏自治区固定资产投资(不含川藏铁路雅安至林芝段在西藏境内的投资)同比增长57.5%,增速较上年同期提升了81.8个百分点,呈现高速增长状态。其中,单项目投资规模在亿元以上的施工项目(不含房地产开发投资)共450个,完成投资额472.93亿元,同比增长38.0%,拉动全区投资增长22.0个百分点。根据交通运输部数据,1-9月西藏公路建设投资完成额达到168.77亿元,同比增长59.5%,占全国公路建设投资额的0.79%,占比较上年提升0.27个百分点。

图1:历年西藏自治区固定资产投资同比(%)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

2023年,西藏自治区共安排重点建设项目191个,计划投资1430亿元,涉及重大基础设施、特色产业发展、生态文明建设、强边固防、保障和改善民生等五大类。其中,重大基础设施类项目计划投资547.04亿元,同比增长18.7%,主要包括川藏铁路林芝至雅安段(西藏段)、拉萨贡嘎机场T1/T2航站楼改造、城市道路和桥梁工程、农牧区清洁能源推广利用等;强边固防类项目计划投资70.02亿元,同比增长16.7%,主要包括应急救援等项目;保障和改善民生类项目计划投资82.15亿元,同比增长22.6%,主要包括幼儿园、义务教育学校、公共卫生服务基础设施、西藏天文馆等。

综合来看,2023年西藏自治区重大基础设施类投资规模出现大幅增长,且前三季度落实情况良好,资金集中流向公路、铁路等传统基建项目,下游进入全面施工阶段,对水泥需求的拉动作用较为明显。

2.房地产投资

2023年1-9月,西藏自治区房地产开发投资累计值为67.08亿元,同比增长42.1%,增速较上年提升99.1个百分点。

从施工情况来看,2023年1-9月西藏房地产开发企业房屋施工面积为634.83万平方米,同比减少6.0%,降幅较上年同期收窄17.9个百分点。其中,房地产新开工施工面积33.13万平方米,同比减少44.5%,降幅较上年收窄19.9个百分点。与此同时,西藏房地产项目竣工量增幅明显,2023年1-9月房屋竣工面积同比增长17.4%,增速较上年同期提升了30.3个百分点。

图2:房地产新开工继续深跌,竣工端出现增长(%)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

尽管2023年1-9月西藏自治区房地产开发投资呈增长趋势,但施工和新开工面积均呈同比下滑趋势,实际地产端水泥需求弱势运行。不过,由于西藏地区房地产行业规模较小,地产端水泥需求占比不高,对总需求的拖累作用较为有限。整体来看,在大基建项目集中开工的背景下,2023年1-9月西藏自治区水泥需求总量同比出现增长。

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Correlation

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price in Chongqing and Northeast Chongqing in the southwest region has risen by 30 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; the price in Changdu, the Xizang, has risen by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Sichuan and Yunnan maintain stable operation.

2024-11-15 17:34:42

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

Recently, the construction in the south is relatively active, the local market demand is warming up, coupled with the increasing pressure on the cost side, the market price trend is stable and small. From October 17 to October 23, the national concrete price index closed at 112.14 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.65% year-on-year.

2024-10-25 17:29:24

Recently, the price of raw materials has shown an upward trend again, but due to the lack of new orders in the concrete market and the fierce competition among enterprises, the focus of transactions continues to decline steadily. From August 29 to September 4, the national concrete price index closed at 113.17 points, down 0.45% annually and 11.09% year-on-year.

2024-09-06 17:22:16

Most regions in China are affected by capital factors, lack of construction increment downstream, no improvement in concrete market demand, and downward pressure on local quotations. From August 22 to August 28, the national concrete price index closed at 113.68 points, down 0.42% annually and 11.12% year-on-year.

2024-08-30 17:31:27

Since the 26th, major enterprises in Lhasa, Xigaze and other places have notified to raise the price of cement by 20 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-08-30 11:42:31

Domestic high temperature rain weather has not yet subsided, downstream construction activity is still low, the concrete market is relatively flat, and the market price is stable. From August 15 to August 21, the national concrete price index closed at 114.16 points, down 0.28% annually and 11.40% year-on-year.

2024-08-23 17:35:52

The domestic market continued to be controlled by the hot and rainy weather, the market demand was weak, the price of concrete continued to fall steadily, and the decline in Sichuan and Chongqing was relatively large. From August 1st to August 7th, the national concrete price index closed at 114.86 points, down 0.43% from the previous month.

2024-08-09 18:09:08

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, the market demand in southwest Sichuan and Chongqing continued to be weak, cement prices in some regions fell by 10-20 yuan/ton, and Yunnan-Guizhou region was mixed. The market demand continued to be weak due to the high temperature off-season in Sichuan and Chongqing, and some enterprises in Sichuan lowered the cement price to increase the shipment volume, while the original plan to raise the price in Chengdu was not implemented. The demand for cement in Chongqing is declining and the price is stable. Rainy weather in Yunnan is frequent, market demand is low, and prices in some areas have fallen after pushing up. Cement prices in Guizhou are generally stable.

2024-08-09 17:19:44

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of the rebound in cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of central and southern Guangdong is not optimistic, and the Guangxi region is tepid. The market prices of the two lakes are basically stable, and there is a decline in some areas. Leading enterprises in Guangdong try to restore the price of cement, but under the influence of high temperature weather, the actual effect is not good. The rain weather in Guangxi is decreasing, the market demand is limited, the price is stable, and the local market is falling. Cement prices in Hubei are stable, and high temperatures affect demand. The Hunan area continues the high temperature, the demand is weak, the partial price falls. Affected by rainfall, the market demand in Henan is not good, and the price is stable.

2024-08-09 17:12:17

Domestic construction conditions have not been significantly improved, coupled with insufficient new projects in most regions, the concrete market is still flat. From July 25th to July 31st, the national concrete price index closed at 115.36 points, down 0.59% from the previous month.

2024-08-02 17:29:53

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

Rainfall continued in many parts of the country, local typhoons invaded, downstream construction was slow, and concrete prices fell steadily. From July 18th to July 24th, the national concrete price index closed at 116.05 points, down 0.58%.

2024-07-26 20:17:51

Rainwater in the south has decreased recently, but the growth rate of downstream construction demand is limited, and the price of concrete is mainly stable. From June 27th to July 3rd, the national concrete price index closed at 117.92 points, and the ring ratio remained stable.

2024-07-05 17:34:54

The recent rainy weather is still continuing, the downstream construction progress is slow, local shutdown occurs, and the price of concrete is stable and small. From June 20th to June 26th, the national concrete price index closed at 117.92 points, down 0.19% from the previous month.

2024-06-28 18:10:43

Many places in China reported that the rain weather increased, the market demand was weak, and the price of concrete was weak. From June 13th to June 19th, the national concrete price index closed at 118.15 points, down 0.20% from the previous month.

2024-06-21 17:53:57

After the festival, the market demand in most regions tends to be weak, and the focus of concrete transactions is mainly stable. As of June 12, the national concrete price index closed at 118.39 points, down 0.03% annually and 12.69% year-on-year.

2024-06-14 17:35:49

Recently, domestic demand is still relatively flat, the cost pressure of mixing stations is increasing, and the Northeast continues to rise. As of June 7, the national concrete price index closed at 118.42 points, down 0.11% annually and 13.07% year-on-year.

2024-06-07 00:41:49

Recently, there is still too much rain in some regions of China, and the demand for concrete market is running at a low level, but the overall price decline has narrowed due to the impact of cost support. From May 27 to May 31, the national concrete price index closed at 118.55 points, down 0.31% annually and 13.61% year-on-year.

2024-05-31 17:14:10

According to the incomplete statistics of China Cement Network, there are about 24 companies with aggregate business in A-share motherboard and Hong Kong listed companies, of which 16 listed companies disclose specific aggregate income..

2024-05-28 16:59:57

Affected by insufficient infrastructure support and the continuous downturn of real estate, the demand of cement industry continued to be weak throughout the year. In 2023, the national cement output was 2.023 billion tons, down 5% from the same period last year. Under the influence of the decline in demand, the contradiction of excess capacity was further intensified, the market competition was extremely fierce, the price of cement dropped significantly, the industry profit shrank sharply again, the annual profit dropped by more than 50%, the development of the cement industry entered an unprecedented difficult period, and many companies suffered heavy losses.

2024-05-23 14:01:48

It is reported that the expansion of Huaxin cement aggregate production capacity is mainly concentrated in the past three years. According to the previous announcement data, by the end of 2020, the production capacity of Huaxin cement aggregate is only 5500. By the end of 2023, its aggregate production capacity has reached 277 million tons, and its production capacity has increased by 220 million tons.

2024-04-19 13:21:26

The general aggregate market is already fighting in the Red Sea, while the high-end fine aggregate market is still the blue sea market.

2024-04-03 14:16:17

Under the background of such a complex and severe cement market, how can the cement industry survive and develop next? The participants had a heated discussion.

2024-03-28 21:39:54

The number of cement enterprises in Tibet is relatively small, and the self-discipline effect of the industry in the region is good. Under the leadership of the association, the production was suspended for about 165 days last year, which also played a supporting role in the market.

2024-03-28 15:44:12

According to the market data of China Cement Network, the price of cement raw materials has continued to rise recently, coupled with the impact of environmental control and shutdown of kilns, enterprises in the region have a strong willingness to raise prices.

2024-01-26 17:04:19

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2023-11-13 14:11:28

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