In recent years, the cement market in Xinjiang has maintained a good growth momentum, especially in 2021, the cement output in Xinjiang increased by 15. However, in 2022, due to the adverse factors such as epidemic control, the slowdown of fixed assets investment in Xinjiang and the insufficient start-up of construction projects, the demand for cement declined seriously. Looking forward to 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the idea of "adhering to the general tone of steady and progressive work, focusing on expanding domestic demand and the role of key investment", and Xinjiang "actively expanding effective investment around transportation, energy, water conservancy, urban construction, new infrastructure and other fields", which is conducive to the stable development of the cement industry in Xinjiang. It is of great significance to boost market confidence and stimulate entrepreneurial vitality. A large number of major infrastructure construction will start in the year, infrastructure is expected to continue to maintain a relatively high growth, the sharp decline in real estate investment is expected to improve under the new deal. At the same time, projects that failed to land due to the disturbance of the epidemic and insufficient project funds are expected to start construction gradually. It is expected that the demand for cement in Xinjiang will increase steadily in 2023, with a growth rate of more than 5%. 1. Economic operation of Xinjiang cement industry in 2022 1. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, In 2022, the investment in fixed assets in Xinjiang (excluding farmers) increased by 7.4 percentage points compared with the previous year (in 2021, the investment in infrastructure increased by 18.6% compared with the previous year, and the investment in real estate development in Xinjiang increased by 115.886 billion yuan compared with the previous year, a decrease of 22.8% compared with the same period last year. Of which, residential investment was RMB82.831 billion, representing a decrease of 22. Housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 16075 67,700 square meters, representing a decrease of 2. New construction area of real estate (housing) was 2,623.2 . In 2022, due to the severe situation of epidemic prevention and control, the sharp decline in the real estate market, the downward pressure of the economy and other unexpected factors, the demand for cement in Xinjiang has experienced a "cliff-like" decline. 17. Cement production dropped from the historical high in 2021 to the level in 2019, with a double-digit decline, second only to 20 in 2018. On a monthly basis, the output in January-February increased by 6.7% compared with the same period last year, and the output in March increased by 17.8% compared with the same period last year. Compared with the same period of last year, the output in April and May decreased by 8.2% in April and by 12% in May. From August to November, affected by strict epidemic prevention and control policies, the output of cement decreased by more than 20%, with the largest decrease of 61% in November. August to October is the golden time for cement sales in Xinjiang, which has a huge impact on cement production throughout the year. According to the region, the demand of different regions has been differentiated, except that the demand of Altay region has increased slightly year on year, the demand of other regions has declined year on year, and the decline of Hami, Bole and Yili regions is smaller, which is 2.3%, 6.3% and 6.8% respectively; The regional demand of Ta'e, Hotan, Keka, Wuchang, Kuqa and Bazhou decreased by more than 20% year on year, 39.5%, 38.9%, 28.1%, 25.8%, 21.3% and 21.2% respectively; Demand in Aksu region decreased by 14.3. Cement price: it rose first and then fell, with a larger decline in Urumqi. In 2022, the cement price in Xinjiang showed a trend of "rising first and then falling". 42. Among them, the cement price in Uchang, Shitu and Bozhou regions decreased by a larger margin, while the price in southern Xinjiang was slightly lower than that in the same period last year. Hami region in northern Xinjiang was affected by the low base last year, showing a restorative growth trend, while other regions remained basically stable. From the monthly price trend, January-February is the off-season of cement industry production and marketing. Due to the cold weather, most of the projects have not yet started, the production and sales of cement are less, and the price of cement is relatively flat. From March to June, with the warming of the weather, the projects have been started one after another, the demand for cement has improved, and the price is mainly rising. Take Urumqi as an example. 42. 2. Market Forecast and Industry Trend Analysis in 2023 From the perspective of demand, the cement market demand will increase steadily in 2023. The People's Government of the Autonomous Region issued the National Economic and Social Development Plan of the Autonomous Region in 2023, and the expected target of fixed assets investment in 2023 is to increase by about 11%. Major infrastructure construction is advancing. In terms of transportation, the construction of Lop Nor-Ruoqiang Railway, the reconstruction and expansion project of Xingxingxia-Tuyugou Section of G30 Line, Luntai Airport, Wenquan Airport, Zhundong Airport and other general airport projects have been started. The construction of Urumqi-Yuli Railway of G0711 Line and Wensu-Zhaosu Railway of G219 Line have been accelerated; We will accelerate the construction of the Jiangjunmiao-Naomaohu Railway, the Qitaijiangbulake and Bayinbuluke Airports, and the Urumqi West Ring Expressway, and accelerate the preliminary work of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Urumqi Railway. In terms of water conservancy, the construction of major water conservancy projects such as Washixia Reservoir and the second phase of Shaertuohai Reservoir, the construction of a number of large and medium-sized reservoirs such as Shixia Reservoir, Yulong Kashi Reservoir, Kurgan Reservoir and Wenquan Reservoir, and the completion of Momoke Reservoir and Niya Reservoir have been started; the construction of large-scale irrigation areas, supporting facilities and modernization, the reinforcement of large and medium-sized dangerous reservoirs (gates), and the harnessing of small and medium-sized rivers have been continued. Infrastructure is expected to continue to maintain high growth in 2023, which will provide some support for the demand for cement. At the end of 2022, many departments issued favorable real estate policies, and the Urumqi People's Government also issued 22 measures to promote the steady development of the real estate industry. Loan policy, deed tax subsidy, provident fund loan policy, new housing planning, housing delivery policy, real estate development, financial support and other aspects of efforts to enhance confidence and support the whole process from land supply to housing purchase policy. With the gradual implementation of supporting policies, real estate investment and new construction area of real estate are more likely to improve, which may boost the demand for cement. At the same time, infrastructure projects and real estate projects that failed to land due to the disturbance of the epidemic and insufficient project funds are expected to start construction gradually in 2023, which will support the demand for cement. Generally speaking, the economy in 2023 is expected to be better than that in 2022, the post-epidemic era consumption demand will increase, the new real estate policy will stimulate the market, and the government's investment in infrastructure will also be steadily promoted. It is expected that the cement demand in Xinjiang will increase steadily in 2023, with an increase rate of more than 5%. 
浙公网安备33010802003254号