First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon re-feeding was 33000 yuan/ton, which was flat, down 37.97% year-on-year; The average price of N-type granular silicon was 31000 yuan/ton, which was flat on a month-on-month basis, down 37.37% from the same period last year, and the price of mainstream silicon materials remained stable. Fundamentally, the story premium of self-discipline in production reduction has accelerated the ebb tide. More than half of September has passed, but there is still no substantial reduction in production in the industry. The mainstream manufacturers in the upstream mainly defend the price, and the futures market moves closer to the spot after the digestion of the game sentiment; Under the background of high inventory and scarcity of terminal orders, the downstream silicon wafer factories still mainly consume inventory, only maintain the replenishment of rigid demand, lack of willingness to accept high-priced goods, and continue the pattern of price without market.
Figure 1: N-type Polysilicon Re-feeding Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: N-type Granular Silicon Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy Dat ABM. Com
II, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com data show that the TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic module price index was 0.7 yuan/W last week, up 1.45% annually. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was 0.72 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, up 5.88% on a year-on-year basis; the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210R PV modules was 0.73 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, up 7.35% on a year-on-year basis; The price index of HJT double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.71 yuan/W, which was flat. The start-up rhythm of terminal power station projects has not been significantly accelerated, the inventory pressure of component manufacturers still exists, the actual transaction scale is relatively restrained, the component quotation shows a tentative rise, and the mainstream stable price pattern.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon rose and then pulled back. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9360 yuan/ton, down 0.79% from the previous month, and the year-on-year decline was expanded. Industrial silicon production continued to decline, but there were no bright spots in the three demand sides of polysilicon, organic silicon and aluminum alloy, and the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, and the price of industrial silicon returned to the weak shock range after the early rebound. In terms of
polysilicon, last week, it was in the stage of production reduction expected to ebb again and the pricing dominated by realistic supply and demand, and the current divergence was obviously convergent. After the expected digestion of production control in the fourth quarter of the futures market, the funds shifted from the game policy story to the real fundamentals, and the high part driven by rumors in the early stage has been basically given up, and the market price has moved closer to the spot quotation range. On the supply side, it is rumored that although the industry has reached a verbal consensus on self-discipline and production reduction, there is still a lack of substantive implementation in more than half of September. Mainstream manufacturers still maintain a high level of production scheduling, exchange warehouse receipts continue to accumulate, and hedging selling pressure continues to suppress the rebound space on the market. At the spot level, the upstream big factories stick to the bottom line of sales not lower than cost price, and the quotation is stable as a whole, but it has not led to the recovery of the transaction. The downstream silicon wafer sector has a high inventory, the profit of superimposed cells is still on the edge of profit and loss, the procurement is mainly to digest the internal inventory, only a small amount of just-needed replenishment, the acceptance of high-price supply is low, the pattern of price without market continues, the passive accumulation of inventory in the factory, and the pressure of the whole industry chain is further highlighted.
Looking ahead to this week (9.21-9.24), the focus of the market will turn to whether the fourth quarter production reduction agreement can be fulfilled and the adjustment of downstream silicon wafer production schedule. In the short term, the mainstream quotation has approached the cash cost line of leading enterprises, and the further downward space is relatively limited, but the upward trading volume is insufficient. It is expected that the futures will continue to fluctuate in a wide range and the spot quotation will remain stable. At present, it is rumored that the agreement is still subject to the independent constraints of enterprises and lacks enforcement. The actual scale of production reduction in October is still the key variable of the medium-term market: if the implementation is not as expected, the cost of industrial silicon will be loosened, and the price of silicon materials will still have a periodic downside risk; If the expected performance is exceeded, the transmission of the tentative rise in the price of superimposed components will lead to a marginal improvement in the transaction of silicon materials. Follow-up focus on tracking the progress of silicon material start-up maintenance, the actual scale of spot transactions, changes in exchange warehouse receipts and adjustment of silicon wafer production scheduling.
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