First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon dense materials was 313,000 yuan/ton, down 0.95% annually and 24.94% year-on-year; The average price of N-type granular silicon was yuan/ton 32000, which was flat compared with the previous year, down 20% year-on-year, and the price of mainstream silicon materials continued to fall. During the week, although some enterprises had maintenance plans, the leading enterprises continued to resume production, the overall supply increased, the shipment of photovoltaic modules was weak, the silicon wafer manufacturers purchased on demand, the spot transaction was weak, and the price of silicon materials continued to decline.
Figure 1: Price Trend
of N-type Polysilicon Compact Material Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: Price Trend
of N-type Granular Silicon Source: Digital New Energy D AtaBM. Com
II, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com data show that the TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic module price index was 0.71 yuan/W last week, which was flat annually, up 9.23% year-on-year; The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was RMB0.71/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.97%; the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210R PV modules was RMB0.72/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.09%; the price index of HJT double-sided 210 PV modules was RMB0.73/W, flat on a month-on-month basis. Component enterprises schedule production on demand, downstream terminal demand continues to be depressed, spot transactions are deadlocked, and component prices are temporarily stable as a whole.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon fell slightly. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9407 yuan/ton, which was flat on a month-on-month basis and turned from rising to falling on a year-on-year basis. During the week, there was a reduction in production in the northwest region, a stable resumption of production in the southwest region, and an overall steady increase in supply; the demand in the three downstream areas was weak, and there was no change in the supply and demand pattern, but there was a certain support in the cost side, and the spot price of industrial silicon was temporarily stable. In terms of
polysilicon, the supply side continued to be relaxed, leading silicon enterprises relied on the southwest wet season to continue to promote the resumption of production capacity, routine maintenance of some factories in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Qinghai brought about a small reduction, but the overall scale of resumption of production exceeded the volume of shutdown maintenance, the weekly output steadily increased, and the market supply increment continued to be realized. The demand side is still in a weak situation, the raw material inventory of the silicon wafer sector is abundant, the downstream cell and component manufacturers are generally in a loss state, the United States launched an anti-circumvention investigation on China's photovoltaic industry, the exp ort is expected to cool down dramatically, the terminal installation undertakes fatigue, the middle and lower reaches only purchase rigidly on demand, and the phenomenon of taking goods at a lower price is widespread. The industry's overall factory warehouse and exchange delivery inventory are still at a historical high, the substantial inventory has not been realized, and the spot price has great upward resistance. The futures market followed the weakening of spot fundamentals synchronously, with the main contract falling five times in a row, with a cumulative decline of more than 6.5% in the week. Short funds dominated the market, and the long-short divergence increased. The pressure on the market was obvious. On the whole, the logic of supply and demand mismatch and high inventory suppression has not been reversed, and polysilicon prices are expected to remain weak and volatile next week (7.20-7.24).
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