First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon dense materials was 31300 yuan/ton, which was flat, down 33.12% year-on-year; The average price of N-type granular silicon was yuan/ton 31000, down 3.13% from the previous month, down 29.55% from the previous year, and the price of mainstream silicon materials continued to fall . During the week, the supply was steadily released, silicon wafer manufacturers just needed to purchase, the fierce bargaining game between upstream and downstream continued, the market was light, and the price of polysilicon continued to weaken.
Figure 1: Price Trend
of N-type Polysilicon Compact Material Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: Price Trend
of N-type Granular Silicon Source: Digital New Energy Source DataBM. Com
II, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com data show that the price index of TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic modules was 0.7 yuan/W last week. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was 0.7 yuan/W, down 1.41% on a month-on-month basis and up 4.48% on a year-on-year basis. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210R PV modules was 0.72 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis and up 7.46% on a year-on-year basis; The price index of HJT double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.73 yuan/W, which was flat. Marginal weakening of terminal demand, weakening of downstream stock and purchasing efforts, mainly just need to take goods, declining trading volume, and a slight decline in component prices.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon fell slightly. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9332 yuan/ton, 0.8% lower than previous month and 8.29% lower than previous year. During the week, the supply in the northwest region was disturbed, the pressure in the southwest region did not decrease, and the pattern of supply increase did not change; the demand in the three downstream areas was flat, the fatigue was undertaken, and the spot price of industrial silicon was weak. In terms of
polysilicon, the supply side maintained an incremental pattern as a whole, the leading enterprises in southwest China steadily increased their operating load relying on the wet season, and the short-term maintenance of several factories in northwest China brought about a slight reduction in production, but the overall output of the industry was still higher than previous expectations.
The US photovoltaic anti-circumvention investigation against China continued, and overseas export expectations continued to weaken, aggravating the pessimism of the industrial chain. Downstream demand has not improved, silicon wafer enterprises have sufficient inventory of raw materials, batteries and components are deeply in loss, only maintaining a low level of rigid demand procurement, market price reduction has become the norm. Factory inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are still at a high level, the industry has no obvious signs of destocking, and spot prices lack upward support. The
futures market weakened synchronously, the main contract fluctuated downward in the week, the weekly cumulative decline exceeded 1.8%, the bears still dominated, the willingness of the bulls to copy the bottom was weak, and the pressure characteristics of the future-spot linkage were significant.
At present, the core fundamentals of loose supply, weak terminal demand and high inventory suppression have not been reversed, and the negative overseas trade continues to disturb market sentiment. It is expected that spot and futures prices will continue to fluctuate weakly next week (7.27-7.31). Without large-scale production cuts or substantial recovery in terminal demand, it will be difficult for the market to get out of the rising trend.
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