First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon dense materials was 31300 yuan/ton, which was flat, down 33.55% year-on-year; The average price of N-type granular silicon was yuan/ton 31000, which was flat, down 29.86% year-on-year, and the price of mainstream silicon materials stopped falling for a short time. During the week, the supply pressure continued to increase, silicon wafer manufacturers mainly consumed inventory, purchasing was more cautious, the upstream and downstream game was fierce, and the price of polysilicon stopped falling.
Figure 1: Price Trend
of N-type Polysilicon Compact Material Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: Price Trend
of N-type Granular Silicon Source: Digital New Energy Dat ABM. Com
II, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com data show that the TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic module price index was 0.69 yuan/W last week, down 1.43% annually. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was 0.69 yuan/W, down 1.43% on a month-on-month basis and up 2.99% on a year-on-year basis. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210R PV modules was 0.71 yuan/W, down 1.39% on a month-on-month basis and up 5.97% on a year-on-year basis; The price index of HJT double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.73 yuan/W, which was flat. Terminal centralized bidding has not started, demand has not improved, downstream purchasing mentality is more cautious, buying up and not buying down trading sentiment dominates the market, component prices have fallen.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon continued to fall slightly. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9257 yuan/ton, down 0.8% month-on-month and 8.12% year-on-year. Inner Mongolia region experienced a shutdown, some units in Xinjiang region resumed production, and the supply was slightly reduced; the downstream demand continued to be weak, lacking upward momentum, and the spot price of industrial silicon was weak. In terms of
polysilicon, the overall incremental pattern of the supply side remained unchanged, the start-up load of the leading enterprises in the southwest continued to increase, the production of Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang in the northwest was slightly reduced, and the overall output remained high. The prices of downstream silicon wafers, batteries and components have fallen, the production schedules of silicon wafer enterprises may be lowered, and the demand for polysilicon continues to be weak. The futures market is weak, the main contract shocks downward in the week, the bears take the initiative, the bulls are cautious about bottom-hunting sentiment, and the futures are under synchronous pressure. It is worth mentioning that on July 31, the General Administration of Market Supervision launched price compliance guidance for the photovoltaic industry, implemented the policy deployment to rectify the "involution" competition, and guided photovoltaic enterprises to change from "price competition" to "quality competition". Policy expectations are warming up, pushing market sentiment to warm up, and polysilicon futures prices have rebounded, but there is no significant impact on the current supply and demand pattern. It is expected that spot prices will continue to be weak and volatile next week (8.3-8.7), and futures prices will rise.
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