of
Silicon Materials Last week, the average price of N-type silicon materials was RMB45,600/ton, flat on a month-on-month basis and up by 14% on a year-on-year basis; the average price of N-type granular silicon was RMB47,200/ton, flat on a month-on-month basis and up by 20.44% on a year-on-year basis. During the week, the market demand for polysilicon did not improve, the price was stable for two consecutive weeks after a month of continuous rise, and the inventory of silicon materials also rose for two consecutive weeks. The higher price increased the willingness of enterprises to increase production, while the downstream procurement did not increase synchronously. The futures market was driven by funds and continued to advance triumphantly. Recently, the market risk increased sharply.
Figure 1: Price Trend
of N-type Silicon Material Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: Price Trend
of N-type Granular Silicon Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com II.
According to the data of Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, the price index of TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic modules was 0.67 yuan/W last week, up 1.52% annually. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was RMB0.68/W, flat on a month-on-month basis; the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was RMB0.68/W, flat on a month-on-month basis; the price index of HJT double-sided 210 PV modules was RMB0.73/W, up by 1.39% on a month-on-month basis. During the week, there was news in the market that the components were out of stock. After the actual survey, the feedback was that the supply was more adequate. The quotation of the first-line manufacturers was raised, but there were still some second-and third-line manufacturers selling at a lower price.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend
of Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Source: Digital New Energy DataBM
Last week, the price of industrial silicon recovered after falling in the previous week. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon rose slightly to 9775 yuan/ton. At present, the demand is still insufficient. The cost of Hesheng Silicon Industry is relatively low. Under the existing price, the willingness of enterprises to resume production has increased. It is expected that it will be difficult to change the weak rhythm. Prices of silicon wafers are temporarily stable, but wait-and-see sentiment has increased. Despite the favorable policies, the price of photovoltaic industry chain has rebounded, but the lack of demand will be the main factor affecting the follow-up price, and the weakening of downstream battery and component links is expected to heat up. In terms of
polysilicon, the inventory rose further last week, the production of enterprises maintained or slightly increased, the willingness of enterprises to increase production increased under the price rebound, and whether the subsequent coordinated production reduction will be carried out remains to be confirmed by the market. We believe that since this year, polysilicon enterprises have continued to operate at low load, the space for substantial production reduction is very low, and the reasons for the cost-based polysilicon price to continue to rise are not sufficient. After two consecutive weeks of stability, it is expected that polysilicon will continue to be weak and stable in the later period.
Recently, Oman United Solar Energy Company's 100000 tons of polysilicon project was approved by the World Bank for financing. The project started in March last year and is scheduled to be put into operation by the end of 2025. Overseas polysilicon production capacity will continue to show a growth trend, while domestic polysilicon production capacity will enter the growth ceiling. The market is mainly to optimize the stock. The global polysilicon market structure will be slowly reshaped.
However, the road of stock optimization is long, capital, compliance and other issues remain to be solved, in the short and medium term, the price of polysilicon may enter the range of fluctuations.
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