First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon re-feeding was 33000 yuan/ton, which was flat, down 32.65% from the same period last year; The average price of N-type granular silicon was yuan/ton 31000, which was flat compared with the previous year, down 35.42% compared with the previous year, and the price of mainstream silicon materials remained stable. Fundamentally, there is no significant change in the current weak supply and demand pattern, downstream demand continues to be depressed, inventory is still increasing, silicon wafer manufacturers purchase on demand, although the leading enterprises are reluctant to sell, the external quotation is high, but the market has fewer new orders, the actual price system is not transparent, and the overall price of polysilicon remains stable.
Figure 1: N-type Polysilicon Re-feeding Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: N-type Granular Silicon Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy Dat According to the data of aBM. Com
II, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, the price index of TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic modules was 0.69 yuan/W last week, which was flat. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was 0.72 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, up 5.88% on a year-on-year basis; the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210R PV modules was 0.73 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, up 7.35% on a year-on-year basis; The price index of HJT double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.71 yuan/W, which was flat.
This week, component transactions are mainly based on the execution of pre-orders, with fewer new contracts. Affected by the weakening prices of raw materials such as upstream silicon wafers and batteries, component quotations are difficult to continue to rise, and the actual transaction prices remain stable.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon rose. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9435 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.8% on a month-on-month basis, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 0.42%. Despite the weak downstream demand, the price of industrial silicon rose slightly due to the reduction of production in large factories and the rise in the price of raw materials such as silicon coal. In terms of
polysilicon, the market was dominated by the news of the industry's production reduction meeting last week, and the market opened the expected game. Futures were stimulated by the rumors of production control in the fourth quarter, but they were expected to encounter realistic constraints before landing. Market rumors, the meeting only formed a consensus on independent production control of enterprises, clear September to maintain the existing production schedule, October to promote maintenance and production reduction, this week there is no real action to reduce production, superimposed new capacity continued to climb, the total output of the industry remains high, the exchange warehouse receipts are still accumulating, after the market rose, long funds cashed out, prices fell. Spot side leader sticks to the cost line to support the price, and the open quotation remains stable, but the raw material inventory of downstream silicon wafer enterprises is abundant, the acceptance of high silicon materials is low, the market has only sporadic small orders, the spot transaction is still cold, the characteristics of price without market are highlighted, and the factory inventory continues to accumulate passively.
Looking forward to the future market, the production reduction meeting has not been confirmed, but if the information is true, it can not ease the market pressure in the short term, because the production reduction meeting only gives the direction of action in the fourth quarter, and belongs to the self-discipline of enterprises, lacking compulsory binding force, the biggest divergence in the market is concentrated in the follow-up implementation. High warehouse and warehouse receipt pressure still exists objectively, as long as the supply contraction is not realized, every round of upward hedging pressure will be ushered in, and the rebound space will be obviously constrained. It is expected that this week (9.7-9.11) polysilicon futures and spot will continue to fluctuate in a wide range. In the short term, the fundamentals will give way to the expectation of production reduction. The spot quotation has cost support, or is stable and strong, but it is difficult to have a significant volume of transactions. In the medium term, the turning point of the market depends on whether the overhaul and production reduction in October can really land, if the implementation is not as expected, the price still has the risk of pressure again. Follow-up focus on tracking enterprise maintenance start-up changes, real spot transaction scale, warehouse receipt registration volume and downstream silicon wafer production scheduling adjustment.
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